Stade Nyonnais 3-0 Bellinzona — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
2.94
Draw
28%
3.28
Away
42%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.75
No
47%
1.96
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.75
4-5 Goals
17%
3.54
6+ Goals
13%
14.45
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.05 — our 28% vs market 26.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
20%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
5%
2/2
22%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
30%
+0.2pp
28%
Draw
27%
+1.1pp
42%
Away Win
43%
-1.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+1.6pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-1.6pp
53%
BTTS Yes
53%
-0.0pp
47%
BTTS No
47%
+0.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Stade Nyonnais EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 48%
-10% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -57% / -57%
1.28/1.32 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.29/1.47
-15% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -40% / -38%
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
276 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 363 · 80%
20.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 26.6
19.0 Crosses 18.4
3.3 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Stade Nyonnais
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bellinzona
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.89 xG 1.31
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
308 Passes 292
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
20 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 13
4 Yellow Cards 2
30.11.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-1 HT 0-0 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV2
26.07.2024 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 2-1 HT 0-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
09.05.2024 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 1-3 HT 1-1 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
09.03.2024 Bellinzona Bellinzona 0-2 HT 0-1 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV2
27.10.2023 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais 2-3 HT 0-0 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV2
01.10.2023 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-0 HT 0-0 Stade Nyonnais Stade Nyonnais İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Stade Nyonnais
3-0
AWAY Bellinzona
2.22 xG 0.96
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 11
366 Passes 351
81% Pass Accuracy 80%
17 Box Touches 17
18 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Stade Nyonnais vs Bellinzona
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Stade Nyonnais cruised past Bellinzona 3-0. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Bellinzona at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Stade Nyonnais had 51% of the ball to Bellinzona's 49%, shots finished 9-10, expected goals 2.22 to 0.96.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bellinzona led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Stade Nyonnais and 1.50 for Bellinzona.

What was the final score of Stade Nyonnais vs Bellinzona?

Stade Nyonnais 3-0 Bellinzona in the Switzerland Challenge League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Stade Nyonnais vs Bellinzona?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bellinzona win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Stade Nyonnais 30%, draw 28%, Bellinzona 42%. The final score 3-0 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Bellinzona) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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