Thun 2-1 Neuchatel Xamax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 28 Mar 2025

📅28/03/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.94
Away
24%
4.75
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.15
Over 2.5
52%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.73
No
48%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.0
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
2.92
6+ Goals
11%
8.93
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
7%
1/X
9%
X/1
19%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
12%
2/2
7%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
60%
-8.9pp
25%
Draw
22%
+2.7pp
24%
Away Win
18%
+6.1pp
48%
Under 2.5
43%
+4.9pp
52%
Over 2.5
57%
-4.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
54%
-1.5pp
48%
BTTS No
46%
+1.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Thun EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 21%
+5% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +2%
2.01/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.24
+14% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / +2%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
326 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 288 · 74%
25.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
21.4 Crosses 16.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Thun
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.73 xG 1.58
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 3
395 Passes 303
84% Pass Accuracy 80%
29 Box Touches 20
23 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
22.11.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 2-3 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
27.09.2024 Thun Thun 1-0 HT 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
06.04.2024 Thun Thun 4-0 HT 0-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
23.02.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
07.10.2023 Thun Thun 1-1 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
11.08.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 4-0 HT 1-0 Thun Thun İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Thun
2-1
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
2.52 xG 0.57
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 2
260 Passes 295
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
26 Box Touches 16
15 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Thun nicked a narrow win over Neuchatel Xamax 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Thun as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Thun had 48% of the ball to Neuchatel Xamax's 52%, shots finished 15-10, expected goals 2.52 to 0.57 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Thun's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Thun had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Thun and 1.83 for Neuchatel Xamax.

What was the final score of Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Thun 2-1 Neuchatel Xamax in the Switzerland Challenge League on 28/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Thun vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Before kick-off our model rated a Thun win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Thun 51%, draw 25%, Neuchatel Xamax 24%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Thun), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Thun) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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