Longford Town 0-1 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 28 Mar 2026

📅28/03/2026 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
48%
2.05
Draw
23%
3.28
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.82
Over 2.5
47%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
3.03
2-3 Goals
41%
1.72
4-5 Goals
21%
3.45
6+ Goals
8%
13.95
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 30% vs market 25.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
13%
X/X
12%
2/1
9%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
48%
Home Win
45%
+2.9pp
23%
Draw
27%
-3.7pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
51%
+2.0pp
47%
Over 2.5
49%
-2.0pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.3pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Longford Town EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 32%
-11% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +7%
1.37/1.46 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.99/1.13
-11% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -13% / +29%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
335 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Longford Town
0W-5D-1L
AWAY Finn Harps
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
05.09.2025 Longford Town Longford Town 1-1 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
04.07.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
17.05.2025 Longford Town Longford Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
04.04.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-1 HT 0-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
13.09.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
28.06.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
POST-MATCH Longford Town vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Finn Harps squeezed past Longford Town 1-0 away from home.

Our pre-match lean was Longford Town at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Finn Harps led the recent series with 1 wins, 5 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Longford Town and 0.67 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Longford Town vs Finn Harps?

Longford Town 0-1 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 28/03/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated a Longford Town win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Longford Town 48%, draw 23%, Finn Harps 29%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Longford Town) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Longford Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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