Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ireland - 1st Division, 5 Sep 2025

📅05/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.53
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
36%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
59%
1.75
Over 2.5
41%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.76
No
56%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.8
2-3 Goals
39%
1.7
4-5 Goals
19%
3.68
6+ Goals
9%
16.25
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 33% vs market 28.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
1/2
10%
1/X
5%
X/1
20%
X/2
12%
X/X
13%
2/1
8%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
36%
+4.6pp
24%
Draw
28%
-4.3pp
36%
Away Win
36%
-0.4pp
59%
Under 2.5
53%
+5.8pp
41%
Over 2.5
47%
-5.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
53%
-8.5pp
56%
BTTS No
47%
+8.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Longford Town EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Finn Harps EU Bookmakers 40%
-4% / +6% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -14%
1.48/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.84/1.25
+10% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -39% / +4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
249 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Longford Town
0W-4D-2L
AWAY Finn Harps
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
52% Ball Possession 48%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
3 Yellow Cards 3
04.07.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 0-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
17.05.2025 Longford Town Longford Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
04.04.2025 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-1 HT 0-1 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
13.09.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 1-0 HT 0-0 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
28.06.2024 Longford Town Longford Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Finn Harps Finn Harps İR1
10.05.2024 Finn Harps Finn Harps 3-2 HT 2-2 Longford Town Longford Town İR1
POST-MATCH Longford Town vs Finn Harps
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Longford Town and Finn Harps couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 24% / 36% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. On goals, under 2.5 goals (59%) landed while no to both teams scoring (56%) missed.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Finn Harps led the recent series with 2 wins, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Longford Town and 1.00 for Finn Harps.

What was the final score of Longford Town vs Finn Harps?

Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps in the Ireland - 1st Division on 05/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Longford Town vs Finn Harps?

Before kick-off our model rated a Longford Town win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Longford Town 41%, draw 24%, Finn Harps 36%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Longford Town), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Longford Town) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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