Minnesota United 2-1 Sporting Kansas City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Apr 2024

Minnesota United
2-1 HT 2-1
Sporting Kansas City
📅28/04/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
USA - Major League – 2024

Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
27%
3.44
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.18
Over 2.5
55%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.56
No
47%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.32
2-3 Goals
39%
1.88
4-5 Goals
24%
2.98
6+ Goals
12%
9.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
2.56
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
8%
12.7
X/1 EV+ ✗
23%
4.66
X/2
9%
7.85
X/X
13%
5.27
2/1
9%
22.3
2/2
11%
5.3
2/X
6%
13.1
Value flag · X/1 at 4.66 — our 23% vs market 16.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
49%
-2.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+1.8pp
27%
Away Win
26%
+1.1pp
45%
Under 2.5
42%
+2.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
58%
-2.8pp
53%
BTTS Yes
60%
-7.3pp
47%
BTTS No
40%
+7.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Minnesota United v Sporting Kansas City — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Minnesota United EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Sporting Kansas City EU Bookmakers 29%
-2% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -2%
1.68/1.22 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.64
-8% / -4% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -1%
50% Ball Possession 50%
16 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
362 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
27.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
22.8 Crosses 16.2
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.8

Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Minnesota United
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.10 xG 0.97
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
366 Passes 399
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
22 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 3-1 HT 2-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
17.09.2023 Minnesota United Minnesota United 0-1 HT 0-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
14.05.2023 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 3-0 HT 2-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
18.09.2022 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 4-1 HT 3-0 Minnesota United Minnesota United ABD
14.07.2022 Minnesota United Minnesota United 1-1 HT 1-0 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD
31.10.2021 Minnesota United Minnesota United 2-1 HT 2-1 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City ABD

Minnesota United 2-1 Sporting Kansas City — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Minnesota United
2-1
AWAY Sporting Kansas City
38% Ball Possession 62%
8 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
282 Passes 539
76% Pass Accuracy 88%
POST-MATCH Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Minnesota United nicked a narrow win over Sporting Kansas City 2-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Minnesota United as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Minnesota United had 38% of the ball to Sporting Kansas City's 62%, shots finished 8-8.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sporting Kansas City led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Minnesota United and 2.17 for Sporting Kansas City.

What was the final score of Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City?

Minnesota United 2-1 Sporting Kansas City in the USA - Major League on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Minnesota United vs Sporting Kansas City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Minnesota United win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Minnesota United 46%, draw 27%, Sporting Kansas City 27%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Minnesota United), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Minnesota United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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