Alverca 1-0 Varzim — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.66
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
23%
4.31
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
32%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
13%
X/2
8%
X/X
9%
2/1
6%
2/2
8%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
56%
-4.3pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.1pp
23%
Away Win
20%
+3.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.7pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alverca EU Bookmakers 60%
Head to Head
AWAY Varzim EU Bookmakers 23%
+3% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -19% / -19%
1.67/0.66 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.56/1.54
+10% / +51% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -44% / -15%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 4
329 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 273 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alverca
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Varzim
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 8
6 Yellow Cards 3
02.03.2024 Varzim Varzim 0-1 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR3
17.02.2002 Varzim Varzim 1-0 HT 0-0 Alverca Alverca POR
23.09.2001 Alverca Alverca 4-2 HT 2-1 Varzim Varzim POR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alverca
1-0
AWAY Varzim
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 4
POST-MATCH Alverca vs Varzim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alverca squeezed past Varzim 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Alverca had 50% of the ball to Varzim's 50%, shots finished 9-8.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Alverca had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alverca and 1.00 for Varzim.

What was the final score of Alverca vs Varzim?

Alverca 1-0 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alverca vs Varzim?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Alverca 52%, draw 25%, Varzim 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alverca) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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