Alverca vs Varzim Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Alverca v Varzim — Team-Based Signals
Alverca vs Varzim Head-to-Head — Last 3 Meetings
1-0
HT 0-0
Alverca
POR
4-2
HT 2-1
Varzim
POR
Alverca 1-0 Varzim — Actual Match Statistics
Alverca squeezed past Varzim 1-0.
As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Alverca as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Alverca had 50% of the ball to Varzim's 50%, shots finished 9-8.
For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Alverca had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Alverca and 1.00 for Varzim.
What was the final score of Alverca vs Varzim?
Alverca 1-0 Varzim in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Alverca vs Varzim?
Before kick-off our model rated a Alverca win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Alverca 52%, draw 25%, Varzim 23%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alverca), BTTS No — while Over 2.5 went the other way.