Caldas 1-1 Oliveira Hospital — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 3rd Division, 28 Apr 2024

📅28/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.75
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
25%
4.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.9
Over 2.5
49%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.81
No
49%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
19%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
14%
X/2
10%
X/X
12%
2/1
11%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
54%
-4.2pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.6pp
25%
Away Win
21%
+3.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
49%
+1.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
51%
-1.8pp
51%
BTTS Yes
51%
+0.1pp
49%
BTTS No
49%
-0.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Caldas EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Oliveira Hospital EU Bookmakers 24%
-9% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -14% / -14%
1.87/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.85
+26% / -32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -32% / -31%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
401 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 269 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Caldas
0W-2D-2L
AWAY Oliveira Hospital
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
10 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 2
25.02.2024 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 3-1 HT 1-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
17.12.2023 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 2-1 HT 1-0 Caldas Caldas POR3
03.09.2023 Caldas Caldas 1-1 HT 1-1 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital POR3
07.01.2023 Oliveira Hospital Oliveira Hospital 2-2 HT 2-1 Caldas Caldas POR3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Caldas
1-1
AWAY Oliveira Hospital
65% Ball Possession 35%
15 Total Shots 4
6 Shots on Target 3
11 Corners 3
POST-MATCH Caldas vs Oliveira Hospital
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Caldas and Oliveira Hospital shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Caldas at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Caldas had 65% of the ball to Oliveira Hospital's 35%, shots finished 15-4.

For context: across their last 4 meetings in our records, Oliveira Hospital led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Caldas and 2.00 for Oliveira Hospital.

What was the final score of Caldas vs Oliveira Hospital?

Caldas 1-1 Oliveira Hospital in the Portugal - 3rd Division on 28/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Caldas vs Oliveira Hospital?

Before kick-off our model rated a Caldas win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Caldas 49%, draw 26%, Oliveira Hospital 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Caldas) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Caldas) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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