Doncaster Rovers 0-3 Chesterfield — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2024

📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.19
Draw
27%
3.35
Away
33%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.91
Over 2.5
49%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.68
No
51%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.42
2-3 Goals
39%
1.79
4-5 Goals
24%
3.47
6+ Goals
10%
13.4
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.42 — our 27% vs market 23.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.2
1/2
6%
31.0
1/X
6%
13.35
X/1
13%
4.96
X/2
13%
6.09
X/X
12%
4.79
2/1
9%
26.0
2/2
14%
4.25
2/X
9%
13.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
42%
-1.8pp
27%
Draw
26%
+0.9pp
33%
Away Win
32%
+1.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.4pp
49%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.4pp
49%
BTTS Yes
56%
-6.8pp
51%
BTTS No
44%
+6.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Doncaster Rovers EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Chesterfield EU Bookmakers 36%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -34%
1.44/1.03 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.73/0.84
+11% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -61% / -4%
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 7
308 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 219 · 66%
20.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.4
18.6 Crosses 23.0
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Doncaster Rovers
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Chesterfield
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
29.07.2017 Chesterfield Chesterfield 4-0 HT 0-0 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers HAZ
19.04.2016 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-1 HT 1-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
24.11.2015 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 3-0 HT 0-0 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
31.01.2015 Chesterfield Chesterfield 2-2 HT 1-2 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
20.09.2014 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers 3-2 HT 2-1 Chesterfield Chesterfield İN1
21.03.2007 Chesterfield Chesterfield 1-1 HT 1-1 Doncaster Rovers Doncaster Rovers İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Doncaster Rovers
0-3
AWAY Chesterfield
0.72 xG 1.46
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 5
1 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
203 Passes 319
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
21 Box Touches 21
16 Crosses 15
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Doncaster Rovers vs Chesterfield
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chesterfield ran out comfortable winners over Doncaster Rovers 3-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 27% / 33% — and on the day Chesterfield made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Doncaster Rovers had 42% of the ball to Chesterfield's 58%, shots finished 7-5, expected goals 0.72 to 1.46.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Doncaster Rovers had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Doncaster Rovers and 1.67 for Chesterfield.

What was the final score of Doncaster Rovers vs Chesterfield?

Doncaster Rovers 0-3 Chesterfield in the England - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Doncaster Rovers vs Chesterfield?

Before kick-off our model rated a Doncaster Rovers win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Doncaster Rovers 40%, draw 27%, Chesterfield 33%. The final score 0-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Doncaster Rovers), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Doncaster Rovers) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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