Morecambe 1-1 Notts County — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 28 Sep 2024

Morecambe
1-1 HT 1-0
Notts County
📅28/09/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
England - 2nd Division – 2024/2025

Morecambe vs Notts County Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.5
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
48%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under
44%
2.23
Over Pick
56%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.56
No
45%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1
23%
4.59
2-3
37%
1.9
4-5
27%
2.88
6+
13%
8.2
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.84
1/2
6%
21.2
1/X
6%
13.9
X/1
8%
8.58
X/2
15%
4.42
X/X
9%
5.68
2/1
5%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.32
2/X ✗
11%
13.45
Value flag · 2/X at 13.45 — our 11% vs market 4.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
◎
Our Pick
Over 2.5 — 56% ✗
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Over 2.5 BTTS Yes — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
25%
+1.7pp
25%
Draw
24%
+1.6pp
48%
Away Win
51%
-3.3pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.8pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.8pp
55%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.7pp
45%
BTTS No
40%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Morecambe v Notts County — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Morecambe EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Notts County EU Bookmakers 56%
+6% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -29% / -34%
1.31/1.52 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.59/1.73
+14% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -5% / -55%
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
242 · 70% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 398 · 79%
19.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
17.3 Crosses 24.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.8

Morecambe vs Notts County Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Morecambe
0W-3D-3L
AWAY Notts County
0.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
0.57 xG 1.69
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
176 Passes 705
72% Pass Accuracy 90%
14 Box Touches 22
15 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
29.12.2023 Notts County Notts County 5-0 HT 4-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
15.08.2023 Morecambe Morecambe 0-0 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
16.03.2019 Notts County Notts County 0-0 HT 0-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2
24.11.2018 Morecambe Morecambe 1-1 HT 0-0 Notts County Notts County İN2
26.12.2017 Morecambe Morecambe 1-4 HT 0-2 Notts County Notts County İN2
09.09.2017 Notts County Notts County 2-0 HT 1-0 Morecambe Morecambe İN2

Morecambe 1-1 Notts County — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Morecambe
1-1
AWAY Notts County
1.49 xG 2.30
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 17
8 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
181 Passes 357
66% Pass Accuracy 78%
35 Box Touches 23
26 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Morecambe vs Notts County
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Morecambe and Notts County couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Notts County at 48%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, both teams to score (55%) landed while over 2.5 goals (56%) missed.

On the day, Morecambe had 39% of the ball to Notts County's 61%, shots finished 10-17, expected goals 1.49 to 2.30.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Notts County led the recent series with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.33 goals for Morecambe and 2.00 for Notts County.

What was the final score of Morecambe vs Notts County?

Morecambe 1-1 Notts County in the England - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Morecambe vs Notts County?

Before kick-off our model rated an Notts County win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Morecambe 26%, draw 25%, Notts County 48%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Notts County), Over 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Notts County) ✗ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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