Port Vale vs Swindon Town Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Port Vale v Swindon Town — Team-Based Signals
Port Vale vs Swindon Town Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-0
HT 1-0
Swindon Town
İN2
2-1
HT 1-0
Port Vale
İN2
1-3
HT 1-2
Swindon Town
İN2
1-2
HT 0-1
Port Vale
İN2
3-0
HT 2-0
Port Vale
İN2
2-0
HT 1-0
Swindon Town
İN2
Port Vale 2-1 Swindon Town — Actual Match Statistics
Port Vale edged past Swindon Town 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
We called this one close before kick-off — 40% / 28% / 32% — and on the day Port Vale made the difference.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.
On the day, Port Vale had 53% of the ball to Swindon Town's 47%, shots finished 20-4, expected goals 2.06 to 0.20 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Port Vale's control.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Port Vale and 1.50 for Swindon Town.
What was the final score of Port Vale vs Swindon Town?
Port Vale 2-1 Swindon Town in the England - 2nd Division on 28/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Port Vale vs Swindon Town?
Before kick-off our model rated a Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Port Vale 40%, draw 28%, Swindon Town 32%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Port Vale) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.