Nashville SC 3-1 Houston Dynamo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.75
Draw
21%
3.64
Away
21%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.1
Over 2.5
57%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.66
No
44%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.91
2-3 Goals
38%
1.82
4-5 Goals
24%
2.99
6+ Goals
14%
9.41
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
2.29
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.5
X/1
20%
4.46
X/2
7%
8.81
X/X
7%
5.49
2/1 EV+ ✗
11%
21.45
2/2
8%
6.49
2/X
6%
14.65
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.45 — our 11% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
53%
+5.0pp
22%
Draw
24%
-2.3pp
21%
Away Win
23%
-2.6pp
43%
Under 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
57%
Over 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.4pp
44%
BTTS No
44%
+0.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nashville SC EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY Houston Dynamo EU Bookmakers 27%
-3% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / +6%
1.91/0.81 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.59
+1% / +28% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -5%
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
385 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 81%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
19.2 Crosses 15.6
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nashville SC
1W-1D-2L
AWAY Houston Dynamo
1.25 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.43 xG 1.84
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 7
326 Passes 374
80% Pass Accuracy 81%
24 Box Touches 23
30 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2022 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-2 HT 0-2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
15.05.2022 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 2-0 HT 1-0 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
15.10.2020 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 1-3 HT 0-3 Nashville SC Nashville SC ABD
26.09.2020 Nashville SC Nashville SC 1-1 HT 0-0 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nashville SC
3-1
AWAY Houston Dynamo
2.33 xG 0.45
67% Ball Possession 33%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
596 Passes 275
92% Pass Accuracy 87%
37 Box Touches 13
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Nashville SC vs Houston Dynamo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nashville SC got the better of Houston Dynamo 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Nashville SC as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Nashville SC had 67% of the ball to Houston Dynamo's 33%, shots finished 18-8, expected goals 2.33 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Houston Dynamo led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.25 goals for Nashville SC and 1.50 for Houston Dynamo.

What was the final score of Nashville SC vs Houston Dynamo?

Nashville SC 3-1 Houston Dynamo in the USA - Major League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nashville SC vs Houston Dynamo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nashville SC win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Nashville SC 58%, draw 22%, Houston Dynamo 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Nashville SC), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Nashville SC) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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