New England Revolution 2-0 Atlanta United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
36%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
2.23
Over 2.5
46%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.5
No
48%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.45
2-3 Goals
42%
1.88
4-5 Goals
21%
2.78
6+ Goals
9%
7.74
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.45 — our 28% vs market 16.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
3.29
1/2
7%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
12%
5.66
X/2
14%
6.24
X/X
13%
5.53
2/1
7%
23.4
2/2
16%
3.83
2/X
7%
12.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
41%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
36%
Away Win
34%
+1.7pp
54%
Under 2.5
41%
+12.6pp
46%
Over 2.5
59%
-12.6pp
52%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.3pp
48%
BTTS No
38%
+10.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME New England Revolution EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlanta United EU Bookmakers 38%
+1% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -10%
1.29/1.17 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.43
-15% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -24% / -8%
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
351 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 360 · 81%
23.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.2
19.5 Crosses 16.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME New England Revolution
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Atlanta United
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
1.50 xG 2.00
42% Ball Possession 58%
12 Total Shots 20
5 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 6
321 Passes 473
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
18 Box Touches 35
14 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2025 Atlanta United Atlanta United 0-1 HT 0-1 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
04.07.2024 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 2-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
10.03.2024 Atlanta United Atlanta United 4-1 HT 1-0 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
13.07.2023 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 2-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
01.06.2023 Atlanta United Atlanta United 3-3 HT 0-2 New England Revolution New England Revolution ABD
01.10.2022 New England Revolution New England Revolution 2-1 HT 1-0 Atlanta United Atlanta United ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME New England Revolution
2-0
AWAY Atlanta United
1.52 xG 0.82
48% Ball Possession 52%
17 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 2
375 Passes 417
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 15
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH New England Revolution vs Atlanta United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

New England Revolution got the better of Atlanta United 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 27% / 36% — and on the day New England Revolution made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, New England Revolution had 48% of the ball to Atlanta United's 52%, shots finished 17-13, expected goals 1.52 to 0.82.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, New England Revolution had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for New England Revolution and 1.67 for Atlanta United.

What was the final score of New England Revolution vs Atlanta United?

New England Revolution 2-0 Atlanta United in the USA - Major League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for New England Revolution vs Atlanta United?

Before kick-off our model rated a New England Revolution win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split New England Revolution 36%, draw 27%, Atlanta United 36%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (36/27/36) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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