Charlotte 1-4 CF Montreal — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
62%
1.47
Draw
18%
4.34
Away
20%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.63
No
45%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
5.19
2-3 Goals
36%
1.97
4-5 Goals
28%
2.6
6+ Goals
15%
6.24
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1.74
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.9
X/1
16%
4.15
X/2
6%
12.85
X/X
5%
7.21
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
19.1
2/2
9%
9.59
2/X
7%
17.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 19.1 — our 8% vs market 2.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
62%
Home Win
64%
-1.3pp
18%
Draw
20%
-2.1pp
20%
Away Win
16%
+3.4pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.6pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.6pp
55%
BTTS Yes
57%
-1.8pp
45%
BTTS No
43%
+1.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Charlotte EU Bookmakers 68%
Head to Head
AWAY CF Montreal EU Bookmakers 20%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +16%
2.01/1.15 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.11/1.71
+12% / +37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / +0%
53% Ball Possession 47%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 3
399 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 345 · 78%
24.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
14.9 Crosses 14.1
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Charlotte
2W-1D-3L
AWAY CF Montreal
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.07 xG 1.21
44% Ball Possession 56%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
347 Passes 473
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
16 Box Touches 22
16 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
13.04.2025 CF Montreal CF Montreal 0-1 HT 0-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
06.10.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 2-0 HT 1-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
15.09.2024 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-1 HT 2-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
16.07.2023 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-0 HT 2-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
25.06.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 0-0 HT 0-0 CF Montreal CF Montreal ABD
26.06.2022 CF Montreal CF Montreal 2-1 HT 1-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Charlotte
1-4
AWAY CF Montreal
0.86 xG 2.57
41% Ball Possession 59%
6 Total Shots 17
1 Shots on Target 9
1 Corners 7
310 Passes 494
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
13 Box Touches 28
4 Crosses 17
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Charlotte vs CF Montreal
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

CF Montreal cruised past Charlotte 4-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Charlotte at 62% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Charlotte had 41% of the ball to CF Montreal's 59%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 0.86 to 2.57.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, CF Montreal led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Charlotte and 1.00 for CF Montreal.

What was the final score of Charlotte vs CF Montreal?

Charlotte 1-4 CF Montreal in the USA - Major League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Charlotte vs CF Montreal?

Before kick-off our model rated a Charlotte win the most likely single outcome at about 62%, with the full match-result split Charlotte 62%, draw 18%, CF Montreal 20%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Charlotte) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Charlotte) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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