FC Nordsjaelland 1-2 AGF Aarhus — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Denmark - Süperlig, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.46
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
41%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.1
Over 2.5
55%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.55
No
44%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.19
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
23%
3.07
6+ Goals
13%
9.54
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.63
1/2
8%
25.0
1/X
7%
12.5
X/1
11%
5.92
X/2
14%
5.86
X/X
12%
5.18
2/1
7%
25.5
2/2
20%
3.59
2/X
6%
12.45
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-4.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.2pp
41%
Away Win
37%
+4.7pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+1.4pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-1.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
60%
-4.4pp
44%
BTTS No
40%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Nordsjaelland EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY AGF Aarhus EU Bookmakers 40%
+9% / +31% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +5%
1.80/1.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.22/1.20
+26% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +52%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
374 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 296 · 74%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.6
14.9 Crosses 20.8
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
4W-0D-2L
AWAY AGF Aarhus
2.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.44 xG 1.10
58% Ball Possession 42%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
506 Passes 324
88% Pass Accuracy 83%
23 Box Touches 20
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
16.05.2025 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 2-0 HT 1-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
30.03.2025 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 2-0 HT 1-0 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
22.11.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 1-0 HT 0-0 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
31.08.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 4-2 HT 1-2 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
03.05.2024 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus 1-3 HT 0-2 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland DAN
22.04.2024 FC Nordsjaelland FC Nordsjaelland 7-2 HT 3-1 AGF Aarhus AGF Aarhus DAN
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME FC Nordsjaelland
1-2
AWAY AGF Aarhus
0.43 xG 2.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
8 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 1
524 Passes 499
89% Pass Accuracy 91%
27 Box Touches 28
9 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

AGF Aarhus squeezed past FC Nordsjaelland 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had AGF Aarhus as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, FC Nordsjaelland had 52% of the ball to AGF Aarhus's 48%, shots finished 8-11, expected goals 0.43 to 2.17 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold AGF Aarhus's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Nordsjaelland had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.50 goals for FC Nordsjaelland and 1.50 for AGF Aarhus.

What was the final score of FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

FC Nordsjaelland 1-2 AGF Aarhus in the Denmark - Süperlig on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Nordsjaelland vs AGF Aarhus?

Before kick-off our model rated an AGF Aarhus win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split FC Nordsjaelland 33%, draw 26%, AGF Aarhus 41%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (AGF Aarhus), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (AGF Aarhus) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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