Nomme JK Kalju 3-1 FC Flora Tallinn — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
2.47
Draw
24%
3.45
Away
43%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.15
Over 2.5
59%
1.64
Both Teams to Score
Yes
61%
1.55
No
39%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
11%
X/2
25%
X/X
17%
2/1
7%
2/2
14%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
37%
-3.8pp
24%
Draw
25%
-1.0pp
43%
Away Win
38%
+4.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
43%
-1.4pp
59%
Over 2.5
57%
+1.4pp
61%
BTTS Yes
60%
+0.9pp
39%
BTTS No
40%
-0.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nomme JK Kalju EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn EU Bookmakers 42%
-13% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +8%
1.06/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/1.11
-34% / -21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +0% / +23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
319 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 307 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nomme JK Kalju
2W-1D-3L
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 15
7 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
06.07.2025 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 1-0 HT 0-0 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
27.04.2025 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 2-3 HT 1-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
05.04.2025 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-2 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
23.10.2024 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn 3-2 HT 0-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
25.09.2024 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 3-0 HT 1-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
15.06.2024 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 0-0 HT 0-0 FC Flora Tallinn FC Flora Tallinn EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nomme JK Kalju
3-1
AWAY FC Flora Tallinn
48% Ball Possession 52%
18 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Nomme JK Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nomme JK Kalju saw off FC Flora Tallinn 3-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was FC Flora Tallinn at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), both teams to score (61%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Nomme JK Kalju had 48% of the ball to FC Flora Tallinn's 52%, shots finished 18-11.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, FC Flora Tallinn led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Nomme JK Kalju and 1.33 for FC Flora Tallinn.

What was the final score of Nomme JK Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Nomme JK Kalju 3-1 FC Flora Tallinn in the Estonia - Premium League on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nomme JK Kalju vs FC Flora Tallinn?

Before kick-off our model rated an FC Flora Tallinn win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Nomme JK Kalju 33%, draw 24%, FC Flora Tallinn 43%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Flora Tallinn) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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