Dinamo Zagreb 4-1 Slaven Belupo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒19:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
78%
1.29
Draw
14%
5.15
Away
8%
8.19
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.33
Over 2.5
59%
1.54
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.99
No
52%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.45
2-3 Goals
37%
1.87
4-5 Goals
27%
2.7
6+ Goals
13%
7.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1/2
2%
1/X
3%
X/1
17%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
15%
2/2
3%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
78%
Home Win
74%
+4.1pp
15%
Draw
17%
-2.2pp
8%
Away Win
10%
-1.9pp
41%
Under 2.5
39%
+2.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
61%
-2.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
46%
+1.9pp
52%
BTTS No
54%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 78%
Head to Head
AWAY Slaven Belupo EU Bookmakers 12%
-2% / +1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +0%
1.85/0.61 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.68/1.64
+17% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / -12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
17 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
430 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 75%
32.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.2
21.4 Crosses 14.7
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
2.54 xG 0.95
61% Ball Possession 39%
21 Total Shots 10
8 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 4
412 Passes 240
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
32 Box Touches 17
23 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 3
10.05.2025 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-0 HT 3-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
09.03.2025 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 0-1 HT 0-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
06.12.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 HT 1-0 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
21.09.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 4-1 HT 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
18.05.2024 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo 2-3 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
10.03.2024 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-2 HT 2-1 Slaven Belupo Slaven Belupo HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Dinamo Zagreb
4-1
AWAY Slaven Belupo
2.78 xG 0.14
55% Ball Possession 45%
18 Total Shots 5
10 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
413 Passes 304
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 6
11 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Dinamo Zagreb cruised past Slaven Belupo 4-1. Half-time: 2-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Dinamo Zagreb as the likeliest winner at 78%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Dinamo Zagreb had 55% of the ball to Slaven Belupo's 45%, shots finished 18-5, expected goals 2.78 to 0.14.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.67 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.50 for Slaven Belupo.

What was the final score of Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo?

Dinamo Zagreb 4-1 Slaven Belupo in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Dinamo Zagreb vs Slaven Belupo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 78%, with the full match-result split Dinamo Zagreb 78%, draw 15%, Slaven Belupo 8%. The final score 4-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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