HNK Gorica 0-1 Osijek — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.67
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
38%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.76
No
49%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
30%
2.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.72
4-5 Goals
20%
3.64
6+ Goals
10%
15.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.87 — our 30% vs market 27.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
6%
1/X
7%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
21%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
34%
+3.8pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
38%
Away Win
38%
-0.0pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
51%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.6pp
49%
BTTS No
47%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME HNK Gorica EU Bookmakers 37%
Head to Head
AWAY Osijek EU Bookmakers 42%
+2% / +2% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -18% / -19%
1.09/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.38
+16% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -39%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
255 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 74%
16.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.9
16.0 Crosses 17.7
2.4 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME HNK Gorica
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Osijek
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.92 xG 1.17
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
271 Passes 398
75% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 3
19.04.2025 Osijek Osijek 0-1 HT 0-1 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
08.02.2025 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
02.11.2024 Osijek Osijek 2-0 HT 1-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
18.08.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 2-2 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
28.04.2024 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica 0-3 HT 0-1 Osijek Osijek HIR
18.02.2024 Osijek Osijek 3-0 HT 0-0 HNK Gorica HNK Gorica HIR
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME HNK Gorica
0-1
AWAY Osijek
0.57 xG 0.99
60% Ball Possession 40%
10 Total Shots 11
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
393 Passes 236
82% Pass Accuracy 71%
18 Box Touches 11
30 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH HNK Gorica vs Osijek
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek squeezed past HNK Gorica 1-0 away from home.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 24% / 38% — and on the day Osijek made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, HNK Gorica had 60% of the ball to Osijek's 40%, shots finished 10-11, expected goals 0.57 to 0.99.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Osijek led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for HNK Gorica and 1.67 for Osijek.

What was the final score of HNK Gorica vs Osijek?

HNK Gorica 0-1 Osijek in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for HNK Gorica vs Osijek?

Before kick-off our model rated a HNK Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split HNK Gorica 38%, draw 24%, Osijek 38%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/24/38) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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