Genesis PN 2-3 Lobos UPNFM — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 28 Sep 2025

Genesis PN
2-3 HT 1-0
Lobos UPNFM
📅28/09/2025 · 🕒02:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 ✗ 2nd Score 4-0 ✗
Honduras - National League Apertura – 2025/2026

Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
2.19
Draw
22%
3.11
Away
27%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.74
Over 2.5
53%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
29%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
11%
2/1
8%
2/2
12%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
42%
+9.2pp
22%
Draw
29%
-6.3pp
27%
Away Win
30%
-2.9pp
47%
Under 2.5
54%
-6.8pp
53%
Over 2.5
46%
+6.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.7pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Genesis PN v Lobos UPNFM — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Genesis PN EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lobos UPNFM EU Bookmakers 33%
+20% / +20% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -10% / -30%
1.35/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/2.11
-1% / +90% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -43%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
346 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 320 · 78%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards 3.4

Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Genesis PN
5W-1D-0L
AWAY Lobos UPNFM
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
The Meetings
26.01.2025 Genesis PN 4-0 HT 1-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
21.10.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 1-4 HT 0-3 Genesis PN HON
10.08.2024 Genesis PN 3-0 HT 2-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
29.04.2024 Genesis PN 1-0 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
05.03.2024 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM 0-0 HT 0-0 Genesis PN HON
18.10.2023 Genesis PN 1-0 HT 0-0 Lobos UPNFM Lobos UPNFM HON
POST-MATCH Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lobos UPNFM edged past Genesis PN 3-2 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Genesis PN at 51%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Genesis PN had the better of it with 5 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Genesis PN and 0.17 for Lobos UPNFM.

What was the final score of Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM?

Genesis PN 2-3 Lobos UPNFM in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Genesis PN vs Lobos UPNFM?

Before kick-off our model rated a Genesis PN win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Genesis PN 51%, draw 22%, Lobos UPNFM 27%. The final score 2-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Genesis PN), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Genesis PN) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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