Marathon 2-2 CD Victoria — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Honduras - National League Apertura, 28 Sep 2025

📅28/09/2025 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
76%
1.25
Draw
15%
5.28
Away
9%
8.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
2.29
Over 2.5
54%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.16
No
50%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
46%
1/2
2%
1/X
3%
X/1
21%
X/2
3%
X/X
8%
2/1
10%
2/2
4%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
76%
Home Win
76%
+0.6pp
15%
Draw
16%
-1.1pp
9%
Away Win
8%
+0.5pp
46%
Under 2.5
40%
+6.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
60%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+8.3pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-8.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Marathon EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY CD Victoria EU Bookmakers 11%
-4% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +12% / +12%
2.25/0.68 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.97/1.85
+0% / +31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +15% / +19%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
419 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 259 · 73%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.9 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Marathon
2W-2D-2L
AWAY CD Victoria
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
25.07.2025 CD Victoria CD Victoria 0-3 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
11.05.2025 Marathon Marathon 0-0 HT 0-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
08.05.2025 CD Victoria CD Victoria 0-0 HT 0-0 Marathon Marathon HON
14.03.2025 CD Victoria CD Victoria 1-4 HT 0-1 Marathon Marathon HON
26.01.2025 Marathon Marathon 0-1 HT 0-0 CD Victoria CD Victoria HON
30.09.2024 CD Victoria CD Victoria 3-0 HT 1-0 Marathon Marathon HON
POST-MATCH Marathon vs CD Victoria
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Marathon and CD Victoria shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

This one beat our numbers. Marathon carried 76% before kick-off and it didn't land — a reminder that even strong leads lose regularly.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 54% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Marathon and 0.83 for CD Victoria.

What was the final score of Marathon vs CD Victoria?

Marathon 2-2 CD Victoria in the Honduras - National League Apertura on 28/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Marathon vs CD Victoria?

Before kick-off our model rated a Marathon win the most likely single outcome at about 76%, with the full match-result split Marathon 76%, draw 15%, CD Victoria 9%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Marathon) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Marathon) ✓ Over 2.5
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