Fleetwood Town 1-2 Cheltenham Town — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 1st Division, 29 Mar 2024

📅29/03/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.05
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
28%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.71
Over 2.5
44%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.85
No
54%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
34%
2.8
2-3 Goals
35%
1.77
4-5 Goals
21%
4.16
6+ Goals
10%
20.1
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 34% vs market 29.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.92
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
7%
13.65
X/1
11%
4.48
X/2
13%
6.86
X/X
15%
4.21
2/1
7%
28.0
2/2
9%
5.33
2/X
7%
14.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
45%
-2.8pp
30%
Draw
28%
+1.8pp
28%
Away Win
27%
+1.0pp
56%
Under 2.5
55%
+1.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
45%
-1.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.1pp
54%
BTTS No
50%
+4.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fleetwood Town EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY Cheltenham Town EU Bookmakers 31%
+0% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / +3%
1.25/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.15/1.45
-19% / +19% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / +2%
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
257 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 232 · 64%
22.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.4
22.0 Crosses 15.2
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fleetwood Town
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.95 xG 0.97
52% Ball Possession 48%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
286 Passes 250
70% Pass Accuracy 66%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 18
4 Yellow Cards 2
03.10.2023 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 0-2 HT 0-1 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
04.03.2023 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-0 HT 0-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
16.08.2022 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 0-0 HT 0-0 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
12.02.2022 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 2-0 HT 2-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN1
21.08.2021 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town 3-2 HT 1-1 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town İN1
18.04.2014 Cheltenham Town Cheltenham Town 1-2 HT 1-0 Fleetwood Town Fleetwood Town İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fleetwood Town
1-2
AWAY Cheltenham Town
1.46 xG 1.17
52% Ball Possession 48%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 3
239 Passes 194
63% Pass Accuracy 56%
29 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fleetwood Town vs Cheltenham Town
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cheltenham Town squeezed past Fleetwood Town 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was Fleetwood Town at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Fleetwood Town had 52% of the ball to Cheltenham Town's 48%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.46 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fleetwood Town had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.00 for Cheltenham Town.

What was the final score of Fleetwood Town vs Cheltenham Town?

Fleetwood Town 1-2 Cheltenham Town in the England - 1st Division on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fleetwood Town vs Cheltenham Town?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fleetwood Town win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fleetwood Town 42%, draw 30%, Cheltenham Town 28%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Fleetwood Town) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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