Southampton vs Middlesbrough Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Southampton v Middlesbrough — Team-Based Signals
Southampton vs Middlesbrough Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-1
HT 1-1
Southampton
İNCL
1-2
HT 0-1
Southampton
İNP
1-0
HT 0-0
Middlesbrough
İNP
2-1
HT 1-1
Southampton
İNCL
3-0
HT 2-0
Middlesbrough
İNCL
1-3
HT 1-1
Southampton
İNP
Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough — Actual Match Statistics
Southampton and Middlesbrough couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Southampton at 56% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.
On the day, Southampton had 62% of the ball to Middlesbrough's 38%, shots finished 13-8, expected goals 2.20 to 0.51.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Southampton had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Southampton and 1.00 for Middlesbrough.
What was the final score of Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Southampton 1-1 Middlesbrough in the England - Championship on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Southampton vs Middlesbrough?
Before kick-off our model rated a Southampton win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Southampton 56%, draw 24%, Middlesbrough 20%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.