Watford 2-2 Leeds United — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 29 Mar 2024

Watford
2-2 HT 2-1
Leeds United
📅29/03/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
England - Championship – 2023/2024

Watford vs Leeds United Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
24%
4.71
Draw
23%
4.08
Away
53%
1.52
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.73
No
51%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
4.54
2-3 Goals
40%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.33
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.54 — our 27% vs market 17.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
8.83
1/2
10%
20.85
1/X
6%
16.95
X/1
8%
12.0
X/2
21%
3.81
X/X
10%
6.4
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
23%
1.85
2/X
7%
16.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
24%
Home Win
18%
+6.3pp
23%
Draw
21%
+1.9pp
53%
Away Win
61%
-8.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.5pp
49%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.0pp
51%
BTTS No
46%
+5.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Watford v Leeds United — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Watford EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Leeds United EU Bookmakers 66%
-28% / -28% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +4% / +4%
1.09/1.47 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.82/0.70
-8% / -24% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +16% / +83%
38% Ball Possession 62%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
243 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 465 · 83%
20.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
24.0 Crosses 17.0
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.3

Watford vs Leeds United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Watford
3W-0D-3L
AWAY Leeds United
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.52 xG 1.55
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
309 Passes 350
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
11 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 19
3 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
23.09.2023 Leeds United Leeds United 3-0 HT 0-0 Watford Watford İNCL
09.04.2022 Watford Watford 0-3 HT 0-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNP
02.10.2021 Leeds United Leeds United 1-0 HT 1-0 Watford Watford İNP
20.02.2016 Watford Watford 1-0 HT 0-0 Leeds United Leeds United FAK
28.02.2015 Leeds United Leeds United 2-3 HT 2-1 Watford Watford İNCL
23.08.2014 Watford Watford 4-1 HT 1-1 Leeds United Leeds United İNCL

Watford 2-2 Leeds United — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Watford
2-2
AWAY Leeds United
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 8
8 Corners 5
238 Passes 473
74% Pass Accuracy 85%
POST-MATCH Watford vs Leeds United
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Watford and Leeds United shared the points in a 2-2 draw. It was 2-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Leeds United at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 49%.

On the day, Watford had 37% of the ball to Leeds United's 63%, shots finished 9-12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 3 apiece. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Watford and 1.67 for Leeds United.

What was the final score of Watford vs Leeds United?

Watford 2-2 Leeds United in the England - Championship on 29/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Watford vs Leeds United?

Before kick-off our model rated an Leeds United win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Watford 24%, draw 23%, Leeds United 53%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Leeds United), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Leeds United) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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