FC Astana 1-2 Tobol — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Kazakistan - Cup, 29 Apr 2026

📅29/04/2026 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
2.53
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
28%
2.51
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
1.97
Over 2.5
56%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.61
No
47%
2.16
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1/2
9%
1/X
5%
X/1
14%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
9%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
36%
+10.7pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.3pp
28%
Away Win
36%
-8.4pp
44%
Under 2.5
47%
-2.9pp
56%
Over 2.5
53%
+2.9pp
53%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.5pp
47%
BTTS No
42%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME FC Astana EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Tobol EU Bookmakers 40%
+15% / +15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -4%
1.00/0.25 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.98/1.13
-14% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +10% / -6%
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
333 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME FC Astana
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Tobol
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
20.03.2026 FC Astana FC Astana 2-0 HT 1-0 Tobol Tobol KAZP
19.09.2025 Tobol Tobol 2-3 HT 2-2 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
10.05.2025 FC Astana FC Astana 1-3 HT 0-3 Tobol Tobol KAZP
03.11.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 0-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZP
08.05.2024 Tobol Tobol 1-0 HT 1-0 FC Astana FC Astana KAZKK
21.04.2024 FC Astana FC Astana 2-2 HT 1-1 Tobol Tobol KAZP
POST-MATCH FC Astana vs Tobol
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Tobol squeezed past FC Astana 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Our pre-match lean was FC Astana at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Tobol led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for FC Astana and 1.50 for Tobol.

What was the final score of FC Astana vs Tobol?

FC Astana 1-2 Tobol in the Kazakistan - Cup on 29/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for FC Astana vs Tobol?

Before kick-off our model rated a FC Astana win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split FC Astana 47%, draw 25%, Tobol 28%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (FC Astana) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (FC Astana) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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