Chicago Fire 3-2 Charlotte — Result, Statistics & Match Review — USA - Major League, 29 Jun 2025

📅29/06/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.0
Draw
22%
3.72
Away
37%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.74
Over 2.5
60%
1.41
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.39
No
43%
2.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
6.12
2-3 Goals
39%
2.09
4-5 Goals
27%
2.45
6+ Goals
13%
5.02
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.69
1/2 EV+ ✗
6%
27.0
1/X
6%
12.35
X/1
11%
5.46
X/2
11%
7.66
X/X
9%
6.49
2/1
7%
20.0
2/2
19%
4.53
2/X
7%
12.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 27.0 — our 6% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
46%
-5.2pp
22%
Draw
24%
-1.6pp
37%
Away Win
30%
+6.8pp
40%
Under 2.5
33%
+7.0pp
60%
Over 2.5
67%
-7.0pp
57%
BTTS Yes
68%
-10.7pp
43%
BTTS No
32%
+10.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Chicago Fire EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Charlotte EU Bookmakers 33%
-8% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -12%
1.45/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.03/1.66
-16% / -10% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -23% / -15%
51% Ball Possession 49%
15 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 4
376 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 80%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
17.9 Crosses 14.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Chicago Fire
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Charlotte
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.83 xG 1.42
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 6
342 Passes 381
81% Pass Accuracy 82%
27 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
18.05.2025 Charlotte Charlotte 1-4 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
03.10.2024 Charlotte Charlotte 4-3 HT 3-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
16.05.2024 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-1 HT 0-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
08.10.2023 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 0-2 HT 0-1 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
18.05.2023 Charlotte Charlotte 2-1 HT 0-1 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire ABD
18.09.2022 Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 2-3 HT 2-0 Charlotte Charlotte ABD
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Chicago Fire
3-2
AWAY Charlotte
1.47 xG 1.33
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 1
560 Passes 417
90% Pass Accuracy 86%
21 Box Touches 20
10 Crosses 12
5 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Chicago Fire squeezed past Charlotte 3-2. Half-time: 3-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 41% / 22% / 37% — and on the day Chicago Fire made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (60%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Chicago Fire had 56% of the ball to Charlotte's 44%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 1.47 to 1.33.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Charlotte led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Chicago Fire and 2.17 for Charlotte.

What was the final score of Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?

Chicago Fire 3-2 Charlotte in the USA - Major League on 29/06/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Chicago Fire vs Charlotte?

Before kick-off our model rated a Chicago Fire win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Chicago Fire 41%, draw 22%, Charlotte 37%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Chicago Fire), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Chicago Fire) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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