Avellino 2-1 Foggia Calcio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie C, 29 Sep 2024

📅29/09/2024 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.9
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
55%
1.6
Over
45%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
2.03
No
52%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1
29%
2.51
2-3
43%
1.78
4-5
20%
4.72
6+
8%
26.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
1/2
10%
1/X
10%
X/1
12%
X/2
11%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
8%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 55%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Under 2.5 — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-4.1pp
27%
Draw
28%
-1.4pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.6pp
55%
Under 2.5
59%
-3.9pp
45%
Over 2.5
41%
+3.9pp
48%
BTTS Yes
45%
+3.2pp
52%
BTTS No
55%
-3.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Avellino EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Foggia Calcio EU Bookmakers 27%
+1% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / -12%
1.76/0.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.58
+23% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +38% / -23%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
360 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Avellino
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Foggia Calcio
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
20.01.2024 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 1-3 HT 1-2 Avellino Avellino İTC
08.11.2023 Avellino Avellino 3-1 HT 1-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTCK
17.09.2023 Avellino Avellino 0-0 HT 0-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
12.03.2023 Avellino Avellino 3-2 HT 2-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
07.11.2022 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio 1-1 HT 1-1 Avellino Avellino İTC
04.05.2022 Avellino Avellino 1-2 HT 1-0 Foggia Calcio Foggia Calcio İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Avellino
2-1
AWAY Foggia Calcio
62% Ball Possession 38%
21 Total Shots 10
9 Shots on Target 4
13 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Avellino vs Foggia Calcio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Avellino squeezed past Foggia Calcio 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Avellino as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Avellino had 62% of the ball to Foggia Calcio's 38%, shots finished 21-10.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Avellino had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Avellino and 1.17 for Foggia Calcio.

What was the final score of Avellino vs Foggia Calcio?

Avellino 2-1 Foggia Calcio in the Italy - Serie C on 29/09/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Avellino vs Foggia Calcio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Avellino win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Avellino 44%, draw 27%, Foggia Calcio 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Avellino) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Avellino) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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