Corinthians 1-2 Flamengo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 29 Sep 2025

📅29/09/2025 · 🕒02:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
4.04
Draw
27%
3.11
Away
48%
1.89
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.48
Over 2.5
46%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.27
No
50%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2.13
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
5.43
6+ Goals
9%
34.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
7.61
1/2
7%
32.0
1/X
7%
16.6
X/1
9%
8.35
X/2
13%
4.12
X/X
13%
3.67
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
27%
2.6
2/X
7%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
22%
+3.4pp
27%
Draw
29%
-1.9pp
48%
Away Win
49%
-1.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
64%
-9.9pp
46%
Over 2.5
36%
+9.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
40%
+10.1pp
50%
BTTS No
60%
-10.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Corinthians EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Flamengo EU Bookmakers 53%
+8% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -5%
0.76/1.31 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.35/1.13
+1% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +20% / -23%
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
260 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 397 · 82%
14.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.3
13.9 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.4
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Corinthians
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Flamengo
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.00 xG 1.38
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
317 Passes 393
82% Pass Accuracy 84%
17 Box Touches 25
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.04.2025 Flamengo Flamengo 4-0 HT 3-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
20.10.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 0-0 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BRK
03.10.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 1-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BRK
01.09.2024 Corinthians Corinthians 2-1 HT 1-1 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
11.05.2024 Flamengo Flamengo 2-0 HT 1-0 Corinthians Corinthians BR1
08.10.2023 Corinthians Corinthians 1-1 HT 0-0 Flamengo Flamengo BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Corinthians
1-2
AWAY Flamengo
2.47 xG 0.72
48% Ball Possession 52%
16 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 3
330 Passes 353
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
18 Box Touches 28
19 Crosses 13
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Corinthians vs Flamengo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Flamengo squeezed past Corinthians 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Flamengo as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Corinthians had 48% of the ball to Flamengo's 52%, shots finished 16-13, expected goals 2.47 to 0.72 — on chances, Corinthians could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Flamengo led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Corinthians and 1.50 for Flamengo.

What was the final score of Corinthians vs Flamengo?

Corinthians 1-2 Flamengo in the Brazil - Serie A on 29/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Corinthians vs Flamengo?

Before kick-off our model rated an Flamengo win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Corinthians 25%, draw 27%, Flamengo 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Flamengo) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Flamengo) ✗ Under 2.5
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