Astur vs Valladolid Prediction — Model Probabilities
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Astur v Valladolid — Team-Based Signals
Astur 1-4 Valladolid — Actual Match Statistics
Valladolid cruised past Astur 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valladolid as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.
On the day, Astur had 24% of the ball to Valladolid's 76%, shots finished 0-19, expected goals 0.24 to 3.42.
What was the final score of Astur vs Valladolid?
Astur 1-4 Valladolid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Astur vs Valladolid?
Before kick-off our model rated an Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Astur 18%, draw 17%, Valladolid 65%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valladolid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.