Astur 1-4 Valladolid — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - Copa del Rey, 29 Oct 2024

📅29/10/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-2 2nd Score 0-4
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
18%
12.23
Draw
17%
8.78
Away Pick
65%
1.06
Under/Over 2.5
Under
39%
Over
61%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
No
54%
Total Goals
0-1
19%
2-3
34%
4-5
34%
6+
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
6%
1/2
5%
1/X
4%
X/1
9%
X/2
20%
X/X
8%
2/1
4%
2/2
40%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Valladolid win — 65%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Away Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
18%
Home Win
5%
+13.5pp
17%
Draw
8%
+9.5pp
65%
Away Win
88%
-23.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Astur EU Bookmakers 8%
Head to Head
AWAY Valladolid EU Bookmakers 94%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +11% / +52%
38% Ball Possession 62%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
221 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 456 · 82%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
Crosses 24.2
Yellow Cards 1.9
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Astur
1-4
AWAY Valladolid
0.24 xG 3.42
24% Ball Possession 76%
0 Total Shots 19
0 Shots on Target 10
0 Corners 11
30 Passes 562
51% Pass Accuracy 87%
0 Box Touches 40
2 Crosses 33
POST-MATCH Astur vs Valladolid
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Valladolid cruised past Astur 4-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-2. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Valladolid as the likeliest winner at 65%, and the 4-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%) came in.

On the day, Astur had 24% of the ball to Valladolid's 76%, shots finished 0-19, expected goals 0.24 to 3.42.

What was the final score of Astur vs Valladolid?

Astur 1-4 Valladolid in the Spain - Copa del Rey on 29/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Astur vs Valladolid?

Before kick-off our model rated an Valladolid win the most likely single outcome at about 65%, with the full match-result split Astur 18%, draw 17%, Valladolid 65%. The final score 1-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Valladolid), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Valladolid) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İSPK More Spain - Copa del Rey
29 Oct 2024
21:00 Compostela vs Deportivo Alaves Analysis →
21:00 Villamuriel vs Rayo Vallecano Analysis →
22:00 Guijuelo vs Ourense CF Analysis →
23:00 Lanzarote vs Racing Santander Analysis →
23:00 LHospitalet vs Real Zaragoza Analysis →
23:00 Real Jaen vs Cadiz Analysis →