Botev Plovdiv 2-1 Cherno More Varna — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - 1st Division, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
2.57
Draw
30%
3.18
Away
41%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
55%
1.71
Over 2.5
45%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.82
No
47%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
32%
2-3 Goals
38%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
11%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
16%
X/X
21%
2/1
5%
2/2
14%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
35%
-5.5pp
30%
Draw
28%
+2.3pp
41%
Away Win
38%
+3.2pp
55%
Under 2.5
55%
+0.2pp
45%
Over 2.5
45%
-0.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
51%
+1.9pp
47%
BTTS No
49%
-1.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Botev Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Cherno More Varna EU Bookmakers 42%
-27% / -27% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
0.34/1.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.73/0.68
-69% / -26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +21% / +46%
49% Ball Possession 51%
11 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 352 · 79%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 1.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Botev Plovdiv
1W-2D-2L
AWAY Cherno More Varna
0.60 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
46% Ball Possession 54%
6 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
27.07.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 2-1 HT 2-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
05.04.2025 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-1 HT 0-1 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
25.10.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
31.03.2024 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv 0-0 HT 0-0 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna BUL1
26.09.2023 Cherno More Varna Cherno More Varna 1-0 HT 1-0 Botev Plovdiv Botev Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Botev Plovdiv
2-1
AWAY Cherno More Varna
51% Ball Possession 49%
9 Total Shots 9
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 2
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Botev Plovdiv squeezed past Cherno More Varna 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Our pre-match lean was Cherno More Varna at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Botev Plovdiv had 51% of the ball to Cherno More Varna's 49%, shots finished 9-9.

Coming into the game, across their last 5 meetings in our records, Cherno More Varna led the recent series with 2 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 0.60 goals for Botev Plovdiv and 0.80 for Cherno More Varna.

What was the final score of Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Botev Plovdiv 2-1 Cherno More Varna in the Bulgaria - 1st Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Botev Plovdiv vs Cherno More Varna?

Before kick-off our model rated an Cherno More Varna win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Botev Plovdiv 29%, draw 30%, Cherno More Varna 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Cherno More Varna), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Cherno More Varna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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BUL1 More Bulgaria - 1st Division
29 Nov 2025
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