Sakaryaspor 1-1 Ümraniyespor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - 1st Division, 29 Nov 2025

📅29/11/2025 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
59%
1.49
Draw
22%
4.08
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.03
Over 2.5
49%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
3.75
2-3 Goals
37%
1.82
4-5 Goals
22%
3.15
6+ Goals
13%
10.55
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.75 — our 28% vs market 21.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1.88
1/2
4%
35.0
1/X
6%
16.4
X/1
25%
4.0
X/2
6%
12.0
X/X
11%
6.07
2/1
8%
22.25
2/2
9%
9.86
2/X
5%
18.6
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
59%
Home Win
63%
-3.8pp
22%
Draw
21%
+0.8pp
19%
Away Win
16%
+3.0pp
51%
Under 2.5
45%
+5.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
55%
-5.6pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sakaryaspor EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Ümraniyespor EU Bookmakers 20%
-15% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -6%
1.54/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.79
-5% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -16% / -12%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 8
5 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
405 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 258 · 75%
28.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 14.8
26.9 Crosses 15.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sakaryaspor
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Ümraniyespor
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.25
1.71 xG 0.51
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
350 Passes 285
79% Pass Accuracy 76%
26 Box Touches 15
23 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 4
23.02.2025 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 0-0 HT 0-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
29.09.2024 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-3 HT 0-2 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
28.01.2024 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 1-1 HT 1-0 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor T1L
26.08.2023 Sakaryaspor Sakaryaspor 1-1 HT 0-1 Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor T1L
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sakaryaspor
1-1
AWAY Ümraniyespor
1.13 xG 2.38
61% Ball Possession 39%
15 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 1
384 Passes 237
81% Pass Accuracy 77%
21 Box Touches 16
27 Crosses 6
3 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Sakaryaspor vs Ümraniyespor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sakaryaspor and Ümraniyespor couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-1.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Sakaryaspor at 59% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sakaryaspor had 61% of the ball to Ümraniyespor's 39%, shots finished 15-13, expected goals 1.13 to 2.38.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Ümraniyespor led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Sakaryaspor and 1.25 for Ümraniyespor.

What was the final score of Sakaryaspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Sakaryaspor 1-1 Ümraniyespor in the Turkey - 1st Division on 29/11/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sakaryaspor vs Ümraniyespor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sakaryaspor win the most likely single outcome at about 59%, with the full match-result split Sakaryaspor 59%, draw 22%, Ümraniyespor 19%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Sakaryaspor) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Sakaryaspor) ✓ Under 2.5
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