Grimsby Town 3-0 Port Vale — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - 2nd Division, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
36%
2.33
Draw
26%
3.18
Away
38%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.81
No
54%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
2.74
2-3 Goals
41%
1.71
4-5 Goals
19%
3.82
6+ Goals
11%
17.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 29% vs market 29.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
3.55
1/2
12%
33.5
1/X
7%
13.55
X/1
14%
5.15
X/2
15%
5.86
X/X
10%
4.29
2/1
6%
30.0
2/2
11%
4.25
2/X
9%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
36%
Home Win
39%
-2.8pp
26%
Draw
28%
-1.8pp
38%
Away Win
33%
+4.5pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.2pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.2pp
46%
BTTS Yes
51%
-4.8pp
54%
BTTS No
49%
+4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Grimsby Town EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Port Vale EU Bookmakers 37%
-11% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +9%
1.32/1.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.07/1.03
-4% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
263 · 67% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 66%
22.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.3
20.7 Crosses 17.3
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Grimsby Town
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Port Vale
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.30 xG 1.28
50% Ball Possession 50%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
285 Passes 228
68% Pass Accuracy 62%
16 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 23
1 Yellow Cards 2
01.05.2021 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-0 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
09.01.2021 Port Vale Port Vale 3-0 HT 2-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
24.08.2019 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 5-2 HT 1-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
26.12.2018 Port Vale Port Vale 0-1 HT 0-0 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town İN2
06.10.2018 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 2-0 HT 1-0 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
10.03.2018 Grimsby Town Grimsby Town 1-1 HT 0-1 Port Vale Port Vale İN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Grimsby Town
3-0
AWAY Port Vale
2.11 xG 0.60
43% Ball Possession 57%
15 Total Shots 12
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 4
166 Passes 257
67% Pass Accuracy 75%
21 Box Touches 22
25 Crosses 21
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Grimsby Town vs Port Vale
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Grimsby Town ran out comfortable winners over Port Vale 3-0. Half-time: 1-0.

We called this one close before kick-off — 36% / 26% / 38% — and on the day Grimsby Town made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Grimsby Town had 43% of the ball to Port Vale's 57%, shots finished 15-12, expected goals 2.11 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Grimsby Town had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Grimsby Town and 1.00 for Port Vale.

What was the final score of Grimsby Town vs Port Vale?

Grimsby Town 3-0 Port Vale in the England - 2nd Division on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Grimsby Town vs Port Vale?

Before kick-off our model rated an Port Vale win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Grimsby Town 36%, draw 26%, Port Vale 38%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS No — while Match Result (Port Vale), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Port Vale) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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