Carrarese 2-0 Cesena — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 29 Dec 2024

📅29/12/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.25
Draw
30%
2.88
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
65%
1.6
Over 2.5
35%
2.21
Both Teams to Score
Yes
41%
1.9
No
59%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.48
2-3 Goals
39%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.46
6+ Goals
7%
23.85
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.48 — our 37% vs market 33.1%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
3.33
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
12.55
X/1
10%
5.03
X/2
12%
6.81
X/X
12%
3.64
2/1
9%
32.0
2/2
10%
5.18
2/X
8%
12.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
41%
+0.6pp
30%
Draw
31%
-1.5pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+1.0pp
65%
Under 2.5
59%
+6.1pp
35%
Over 2.5
41%
-6.1pp
41%
BTTS Yes
49%
-7.9pp
59%
BTTS No
51%
+7.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Carrarese EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Cesena EU Bookmakers 32%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -19%
1.07/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.04/1.15
-7% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -30% / +1%
51% Ball Possession 49%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 4
369 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 77%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.2
17.9 Crosses 16.7
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Carrarese
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Cesena
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
55% Ball Possession 45%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
476 Passes 325
82% Pass Accuracy 78%
3 Yellow Cards 2
18.08.2024 Cesena Cesena 2-1 HT 2-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTB
05.03.2024 Carrarese Carrarese 3-2 HT 1-1 Cesena Cesena İTC
30.10.2023 Cesena Cesena 2-1 HT 1-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTC
23.12.2022 Carrarese Carrarese 1-1 HT 0-1 Cesena Cesena İTC
04.09.2022 Cesena Cesena 1-2 HT 1-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTC
14.04.2022 Cesena Cesena 6-0 HT 2-0 Carrarese Carrarese İTC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Carrarese
2-0
AWAY Cesena
2.67 xG 0.42
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 6
386 Passes 319
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 13
19 Crosses 11
6 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Carrarese vs Cesena
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Carrarese got the better of Cesena 2-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Carrarese as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (65%), no to both teams scoring (59%) came in.

On the day, Carrarese had 53% of the ball to Cesena's 47%, shots finished 18-12, expected goals 2.67 to 0.42.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Cesena led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Carrarese and 2.33 for Cesena.

What was the final score of Carrarese vs Cesena?

Carrarese 2-0 Cesena in the Italy - Serie B on 29/12/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Carrarese vs Cesena?

Before kick-off our model rated a Carrarese win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Carrarese 41%, draw 30%, Cesena 29%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Carrarese), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Carrarese) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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