Ajax 2-1 Galatasaray — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
27%
3.54
Away
29%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.96
Over 2.5
53%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.33
No
48%
3.05
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
6.78
2-3 Goals
36%
2.17
4-5 Goals
24%
2.39
6+ Goals
13%
4.58
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.11
1/2
7%
22.55
1/X
9%
11.5
X/1 EV+ ✗
19%
6.12
X/2
10%
6.81
X/X
13%
6.31
2/1
7%
20.8
2/2
13%
3.69
2/X
4%
11.65
Value flag · X/1 at 6.12 — our 19% vs market 12.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
41%
+2.8pp
27%
Draw
25%
+2.4pp
29%
Away Win
34%
-5.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
30%
+17.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
70%
-17.3pp
52%
BTTS Yes
71%
-19.2pp
48%
BTTS No
29%
+19.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Galatasaray EU Bookmakers 38%
-3% / -4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -5%
1.99/1.65 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.74/1.73
+8% / -39% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -31% / -29%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 5
345 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 371 · 79%
30.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
15.0 Crosses 19.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Galatasaray
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
15 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 4
10.01.2014 Galatasaray Galatasaray 2-1 HT 1-0 Ajax Ajax HAZ
15.01.2011 Galatasaray Galatasaray 0-0 HT 0-0 Ajax Ajax HAZ
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax
2-1
AWAY Galatasaray
1.65 xG 2.76
39% Ball Possession 61%
12 Total Shots 28
6 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 10
304 Passes 493
82% Pass Accuracy 87%
20 Box Touches 42
15 Crosses 40
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ajax vs Galatasaray
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ajax squeezed past Galatasaray 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Ajax as the likeliest winner at 43%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Ajax had 39% of the ball to Galatasaray's 61%, shots finished 12-28, expected goals 1.65 to 2.76 — on chances, Galatasaray could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Galatasaray led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Ajax and 1.00 for Galatasaray.

What was the final score of Ajax vs Galatasaray?

Ajax 2-1 Galatasaray in the UEFA Europa League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax vs Galatasaray?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Ajax 43%, draw 27%, Galatasaray 29%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ajax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Ajax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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