Ferencvaros 4-3 AZ Alkmaar — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.25
Draw
30%
3.11
Away
36%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.71
Over 2.5
40%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.82
No
55%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
33%
2.74
2-3 Goals
42%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
3.97
6+ Goals
8%
18.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.74 — our 33% vs market 29.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.33
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
5%
12.9
X/1
11%
5.1
X/2
14%
6.36
X/X
18%
4.13
2/1
8%
28.5
2/2
15%
4.68
2/X
7%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
41%
-7.0pp
30%
Draw
29%
+1.3pp
36%
Away Win
30%
+5.8pp
60%
Under 2.5
55%
+5.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
45%
-5.2pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.3pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ferencvaros EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY AZ Alkmaar EU Bookmakers 34%
+42% / +42% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +4%
2.11/1.51 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.45/2.07
+82% / -17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +35% / -14%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
316 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 314 · 76%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.8
13.5 Crosses 14.4
4.5 Yellow Cards 2.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ferencvaros
4-3
AWAY AZ Alkmaar
1.70 xG 0.74
36% Ball Possession 64%
11 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 7
242 Passes 500
79% Pass Accuracy 90%
12 Box Touches 24
8 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Ferencvaros vs AZ Alkmaar
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ferencvaros nicked a narrow win over AZ Alkmaar 4-3. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 30% / 36% — and on the day Ferencvaros made the difference. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ferencvaros had 36% of the ball to AZ Alkmaar's 64%, shots finished 11-11, expected goals 1.70 to 0.74.

What was the final score of Ferencvaros vs AZ Alkmaar?

Ferencvaros 4-3 AZ Alkmaar in the UEFA Europa League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ferencvaros vs AZ Alkmaar?

Before kick-off our model rated an AZ Alkmaar win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Ferencvaros 34%, draw 30%, AZ Alkmaar 36%. The final score 4-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (AZ Alkmaar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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