Sporting Braga 1-0 Lazio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 30 Jan 2025

Sporting Braga
1-0 HT 1-0
Lazio
📅30/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✓
UEFA Europa League – 2024/2025

Sporting Braga vs Lazio Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.27
Draw
23%
3.35
Away
38%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.07
Over 2.5
48%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.9
2-3 Goals
41%
1.82
4-5 Goals
21%
2.99
6+ Goals
10%
9.46
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.9 — our 28% vs market 19.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
3.32
1/2
6%
27.0
1/X
9%
12.45
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.54
X/2
12%
6.22
X/X
8%
5.12
2/1
6%
24.3
2/2
20%
3.97
2/X
6%
12.65
Value flag · X/1 at 5.54 — our 20% vs market 13.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
40%
-1.8pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.0pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+4.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+7.8pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-7.8pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-9.8pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+9.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sporting Braga v Lazio — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sporting Braga EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Lazio EU Bookmakers 37%
+9% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +18% / +24%
0.72/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.37/0.60
+26% / +112% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / +141%
51% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
370 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 347 · 79%
13.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.1
9.5 Crosses 16.6
1.2 Yellow Cards 0.8

Sporting Braga 1-0 Lazio — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sporting Braga
1-0
AWAY Lazio
0.76 xG 0.60
50% Ball Possession 50%
8 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 7
446 Passes 435
88% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 22
18 Crosses 24
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Sporting Braga vs Lazio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sporting Braga edged past Lazio 1-0.

Our pre-match split (38% / 23% / 38%) promised a tight game; Sporting Braga found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Sporting Braga had 50% of the ball to Lazio's 50%, shots finished 8-12, expected goals 0.76 to 0.60.

What was the final score of Sporting Braga vs Lazio?

Sporting Braga 1-0 Lazio in the UEFA Europa League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sporting Braga vs Lazio?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sporting Braga win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Sporting Braga 38%, draw 23%, Lazio 38%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (38/23/38) ✓ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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