Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Viktoria Plzen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
54%
1.42
Draw
23%
4.34
Away
23%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.21
Over 2.5
48%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.85
No
57%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
4.26
2-3 Goals
39%
1.86
4-5 Goals
22%
2.85
6+ Goals
10%
8.23
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.26 — our 29% vs market 17.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
37%
1.64
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.2
X/1
12%
3.94
X/2
10%
15.2
X/X
9%
6.71
2/1
6%
21.5
2/2
7%
12.6
2/X
6%
20.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
54%
Home Win
67%
-12.3pp
23%
Draw
20%
+2.7pp
23%
Away Win
13%
+9.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.0pp
48%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.0pp
43%
BTTS Yes
50%
-6.9pp
57%
BTTS No
50%
+6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Athletic Bilbao EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Viktoria Plzen EU Bookmakers 16%
+10% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +13%
0.90/0.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.63
-21% / +145% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -21%
55% Ball Possession 45%
16 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
368 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 308 · 75%
21.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 12.8
18.3 Crosses 12.5
1.7 Yellow Cards 2.6
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Athletic Bilbao
3-1
AWAY Viktoria Plzen
2.20 xG 0.58
58% Ball Possession 42%
19 Total Shots 8
8 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 1
415 Passes 279
84% Pass Accuracy 76%
30 Box Touches 18
20 Crosses 8
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Athletic Bilbao vs Viktoria Plzen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Athletic Bilbao beat Viktoria Plzen 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Athletic Bilbao as the likeliest winner at 54%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Athletic Bilbao had 58% of the ball to Viktoria Plzen's 42%, shots finished 19-8, expected goals 2.20 to 0.58.

What was the final score of Athletic Bilbao vs Viktoria Plzen?

Athletic Bilbao 3-1 Viktoria Plzen in the UEFA Europa League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Athletic Bilbao vs Viktoria Plzen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Athletic Bilbao win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Athletic Bilbao 54%, draw 23%, Viktoria Plzen 23%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Athletic Bilbao) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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