Lyon 1-1 Ludogorets Razgrad — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.3
Draw
25%
4.95
Away
22%
7.18
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.43
Over 2.5
51%
1.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.88
No
55%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
26%
4.86
2-3 Goals
39%
1.93
4-5 Goals
24%
2.67
6+ Goals
11%
6.83
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.86 — our 26% vs market 15.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
31%
1.49
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
20.85
X/1
14%
3.79
X/2
8%
18.3
X/X
11%
8.21
2/1
8%
20.7
2/2
8%
15.3
2/X
6%
24.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
72%
-19.1pp
25%
Draw
17%
+8.5pp
22%
Away Win
11%
+10.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
38%
+11.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
62%
-11.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
49%
-4.4pp
55%
BTTS No
51%
+4.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lyon EU Bookmakers 77%
Head to Head
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad EU Bookmakers 14%
-6% / -7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +4%
2.87/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.78/1.63
-26% / +26% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -18% / +40%
62% Ball Possession 38%
16 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
507 · 85% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 276 · 74%
50.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 11.3
19.4 Crosses 9.5
1.9 Yellow Cards 3.2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lyon
1-1
AWAY Ludogorets Razgrad
1.30 xG 2.43
57% Ball Possession 43%
13 Total Shots 15
8 Shots on Target 6
11 Corners 4
464 Passes 335
86% Pass Accuracy 84%
44 Box Touches 20
22 Crosses 16
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lyon vs Ludogorets Razgrad
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lyon and Ludogorets Razgrad shared the points in a 1-1 draw. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Lyon at 53%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Lyon had 57% of the ball to Ludogorets Razgrad's 43%, shots finished 13-15, expected goals 1.30 to 2.43.

What was the final score of Lyon vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

Lyon 1-1 Ludogorets Razgrad in the UEFA Europa League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lyon vs Ludogorets Razgrad?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lyon win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Lyon 53%, draw 25%, Ludogorets Razgrad 22%. The final score 1-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Lyon) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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