Midtjylland 2-2 Fenerbahçe — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
3.32
Draw
22%
3.45
Away
39%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
45%
2.07
Over 2.5
55%
1.68
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.63
No
44%
2.13
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
3.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.81
4-5 Goals EV+ ✓
28%
3.04
6+ Goals
11%
9.85
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.04 — our 28% vs market 26.5%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1 EV+ ✗
22%
5.58
1/2
9%
22.55
1/X
8%
13.4
X/1
11%
7.88
X/2
11%
4.81
X/X
8%
5.1
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
19%
2.59
2/X
6%
12.5
Value flag · 1/1 at 5.58 — our 22% vs market 13.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
26%
+12.5pp
22%
Draw
25%
-3.3pp
39%
Away Win
48%
-9.2pp
45%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.8pp
55%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.8pp
56%
BTTS Yes
57%
-0.8pp
44%
BTTS No
43%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Midtjylland EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Fenerbahçe EU Bookmakers 52%
+19% / +19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +11% / +11%
2.17/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.80/1.71
+150% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -20%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
311 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 378 · 81%
25.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.0
12.5 Crosses 11.7
4.0 Yellow Cards 4.3
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Midtjylland
2-2
AWAY Fenerbahçe
1.52 xG 1.47
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
353 Passes 283
77% Pass Accuracy 71%
30 Box Touches 16
25 Crosses 11
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Midtjylland vs Fenerbahçe
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Midtjylland and Fenerbahçe shared the points in a 2-2 draw. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match split (39% / 22% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (55%), both teams to score (56%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Midtjylland had 54% of the ball to Fenerbahçe's 46%, shots finished 13-7, expected goals 1.52 to 1.47.

What was the final score of Midtjylland vs Fenerbahçe?

Midtjylland 2-2 Fenerbahçe in the UEFA Europa League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Midtjylland vs Fenerbahçe?

Before kick-off our model rated a Midtjylland win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Midtjylland 39%, draw 22%, Fenerbahçe 39%. The final score 2-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (39/22/39) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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