Olympiakos 3-0 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — UEFA Europa League, 30 Jan 2025

📅30/01/2025 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
58%
1.42
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
40%
2.21
Over 2.5
60%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.82
No
43%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
21%
4.24
2-3 Goals
36%
1.86
4-5 Goals
27%
2.85
6+ Goals
16%
8.3
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
1.69
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
17.15
X/1
25%
3.93
X/2
7%
14.05
X/X
8%
6.72
2/1 EV+ ✗
12%
21.0
2/2
9%
11.55
2/X
5%
19.7
Value flag · 2/1 at 21.0 — our 12% vs market 2.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
58%
Home Win
66%
-8.1pp
21%
Draw
20%
+1.1pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.0pp
40%
Under 2.5
41%
-1.7pp
60%
Over 2.5
59%
+1.7pp
57%
BTTS Yes
51%
+6.4pp
43%
BTTS No
49%
-6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Olympiakos EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 17%
-11% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
1.19/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.43/2.62
-45% / +35% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / +30%
59% Ball Possession 41%
17 Total Shots 9
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
429 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 304 · 77%
23.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.0
21.4 Crosses 10.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Olympiakos
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Karabağ
0.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
0.71 xG 1.40
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 5
245 Passes 370
72% Pass Accuracy 79%
14 Box Touches 26
15 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 3
13.10.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 0-0 HT 0-0 Olympiakos Olympiakos AVL
06.10.2022 Olympiakos Olympiakos 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AVL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Olympiakos
3-0
AWAY Karabağ
3.80 xG 0.19
44% Ball Possession 56%
23 Total Shots 3
9 Shots on Target 1
7 Corners 3
205 Passes 297
70% Pass Accuracy 73%
42 Box Touches 16
32 Crosses 9
0 Yellow Cards 6
POST-MATCH Olympiakos vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Olympiakos cruised past Karabağ 3-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Olympiakos as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-0 landed on that lead. On goals, over 2.5 goals (60%) landed while both teams to score (57%) missed.

On the day, Olympiakos had 44% of the ball to Karabağ's 56%, shots finished 23-3, expected goals 3.80 to 0.19.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.00 goals for Olympiakos and 1.50 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Olympiakos vs Karabağ?

Olympiakos 3-0 Karabağ in the UEFA Europa League on 30/01/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Olympiakos vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated a Olympiakos win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Olympiakos 58%, draw 21%, Karabağ 21%. The final score 3-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Olympiakos), Over 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Olympiakos) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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