Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Japan - J1 League, 30 Mar 2024

📅30/03/2024 · 🕒10:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.57
Draw
32%
3.28
Away
34%
2.39
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.9
Over 2.5
51%
1.82
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.68
No
45%
2.06
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.79
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.52
6+ Goals
10%
13.75
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.52 — our 26% vs market 23.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
3.99
1/2
7%
27.5
1/X
11%
13.1
X/1
11%
5.84
X/2
10%
5.27
X/X
12%
4.63
2/1
7%
30.0
2/2
18%
3.45
2/X
9%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
35%
-1.1pp
32%
Draw
27%
+4.8pp
34%
Away Win
38%
-3.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
49%
+0.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
51%
-0.5pp
55%
BTTS Yes
56%
-0.3pp
45%
BTTS No
44%
+0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nagoya Grampus EU Bookmakers 39%
Head to Head
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos EU Bookmakers 42%
+3% / -1% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +0%
1.26/1.12 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.75
-6% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +28% / -24%
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
362 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 366 · 79%
18.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.4
14.4 Crosses 17.4
1.6 Yellow Cards 1.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nagoya Grampus
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.06 xG 1.82
35% Ball Possession 65%
12 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 4
231 Passes 518
71% Pass Accuracy 85%
20 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
08.07.2023 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-2 HT 1-2 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
29.04.2023 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 1-1 HT 0-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
01.10.2022 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 0-4 HT 0-1 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
07.05.2022 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1 HT 1-1 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
18.09.2021 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 2-1 HT 1-0 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos JAP
12.08.2021 Yokohama F. Marinos Yokohama F. Marinos 2-0 HT 2-0 Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus JAP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nagoya Grampus
2-1
AWAY Yokohama F. Marinos
1.63 xG 1.40
37% Ball Possession 63%
14 Total Shots 19
5 Shots on Target 5
2 Corners 9
234 Passes 460
76% Pass Accuracy 87%
25 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 27
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Nagoya Grampus nicked a narrow win over Yokohama F. Marinos 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 34% / 32% / 34% — and on the day Nagoya Grampus made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Nagoya Grampus had 37% of the ball to Yokohama F. Marinos's 63%, shots finished 14-19, expected goals 1.63 to 1.40.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Yokohama F. Marinos led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Nagoya Grampus and 2.00 for Yokohama F. Marinos.

What was the final score of Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Nagoya Grampus 2-1 Yokohama F. Marinos in the Japan - J1 League on 30/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Nagoya Grampus win the most likely single outcome at about 34%, with the full match-result split Nagoya Grampus 34%, draw 32%, Yokohama F. Marinos 34%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (34/32/34) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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