Navalcarnero 1-0 Atlético Paso — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒13:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.49
Draw
27%
3.72
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.64
Over 2.5
49%
2.15
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.29
No
53%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
8%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
4%
1/X
7%
X/1
19%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
5%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
63%
-10.4pp
27%
Draw
23%
+3.4pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+6.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
57%
-6.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
43%
+6.1pp
47%
BTTS Yes
40%
+6.9pp
53%
BTTS No
60%
-6.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Navalcarnero EU Bookmakers 67%
Head to Head
AWAY Atlético Paso EU Bookmakers 17%
-12% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -26%
2.21/1.38 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.79/1.64
+35% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -12%
56% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
427 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 249 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Navalcarnero
0W-3D-1L
AWAY Atlético Paso
0.75 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 8
2 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.11.2024 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso 1-1 HT 1-1 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
11.02.2024 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero 1-1 HT 0-0 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso İS4
01.10.2023 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso 0-0 HT 0-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
15.01.2023 Atlético Paso Atlético Paso 2-1 HT 2-0 Navalcarnero Navalcarnero İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Navalcarnero
1-0
AWAY Atlético Paso
69% Ball Possession 31%
24 Total Shots 2
12 Shots on Target 0
9 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Navalcarnero vs Atlético Paso
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Navalcarnero nicked a narrow win over Atlético Paso 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Navalcarnero as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Navalcarnero had 69% of the ball to Atlético Paso's 31%, shots finished 24-2.

Coming into the game, across their last 4 meetings in our records, Atlético Paso led the recent series with 1 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.75 goals for Navalcarnero and 1.00 for Atlético Paso.

What was the final score of Navalcarnero vs Atlético Paso?

Navalcarnero 1-0 Atlético Paso in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Navalcarnero vs Atlético Paso?

Before kick-off our model rated a Navalcarnero win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Navalcarnero 52%, draw 27%, Atlético Paso 21%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Navalcarnero), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Navalcarnero) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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