UD San Fernando 0-1 Don Benito — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Spain - 2nd Division RFEF, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.57
Draw
25%
3.64
Away
20%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.56
Over 2.5
42%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.4
No
60%
1.5
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
35%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
23%
X/2
7%
X/X
15%
2/1
7%
2/2
8%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
60%
-5.5pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.2pp
20%
Away Win
15%
+5.3pp
58%
Under 2.5
60%
-2.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
40%
+2.4pp
40%
BTTS Yes
38%
+2.3pp
60%
BTTS No
62%
-2.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME UD San Fernando EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Don Benito EU Bookmakers 18%
-50% / -50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -30%
0.97/1.49 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.59/1.62
-41% / -52% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -28% / -11%
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 3
370 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 225 · 71%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.7 Yellow Cards 2.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME UD San Fernando
0W-1D-2L
AWAY Don Benito
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
65% Ball Possession 35%
12 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 3
17.11.2024 Don Benito Don Benito 1-0 HT 1-0 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando İS4
15.05.2022 Don Benito Don Benito 2-2 HT 2-0 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando İS4
09.01.2022 UD San Fernando UD San Fernando 1-3 HT 1-1 Don Benito Don Benito İS4
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME UD San Fernando
0-1
AWAY Don Benito
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 5
7 Shots on Target 2
11 Corners 6
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH UD San Fernando vs Don Benito
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Don Benito squeezed past UD San Fernando 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had UD San Fernando at 55% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one. The goals side of the card held up too — under 2.5 goals (58%), no to both teams scoring (60%) came in.

On the day, UD San Fernando had 54% of the ball to Don Benito's 46%, shots finished 14-5.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Don Benito led the recent series with 2 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for UD San Fernando and 2.00 for Don Benito.

What was the final score of UD San Fernando vs Don Benito?

UD San Fernando 0-1 Don Benito in the Spain - 2nd Division RFEF on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for UD San Fernando vs Don Benito?

Before kick-off our model rated a UD San Fernando win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split UD San Fernando 55%, draw 25%, Don Benito 20%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (UD San Fernando) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (UD San Fernando) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
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