Monarcas Morelia 3-2 Correcaminos UAT — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 30 Mar 2025

📅30/03/2025 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
57%
1.53
Draw
24%
3.94
Away
19%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
1.95
Over 2.5
50%
1.78
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.9
No
57%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
43%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
5%
1/X
8%
X/1
20%
X/2
8%
X/X
10%
2/1
9%
2/2
7%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
57%
Home Win
61%
-4.3pp
24%
Draw
22%
+1.7pp
19%
Away Win
17%
+2.6pp
50%
Under 2.5
48%
+2.9pp
50%
Over 2.5
52%
-2.9pp
43%
BTTS Yes
49%
-5.7pp
57%
BTTS No
51%
+5.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Monarcas Morelia EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Correcaminos UAT EU Bookmakers 20%
+1% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -16%
1.85/0.78 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.87/1.97
-6% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -2% / -11%
55% Ball Possession 45%
13 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
380 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 240 · 70%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Monarcas Morelia
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Correcaminos UAT
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
11.10.2024 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 3-0 HT 1-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
21.02.2024 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 3-1 HT 2-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
14.08.2023 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 2-0 HT 0-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
15.02.2023 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-1 HT 1-1 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
05.08.2022 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia 1-0 HT 0-0 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT MEK2
09.02.2022 Correcaminos UAT Correcaminos UAT 1-1 HT 0-0 Monarcas Morelia Monarcas Morelia MEK2
POST-MATCH Monarcas Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Monarcas Morelia edged past Correcaminos UAT 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Monarcas Morelia as the likeliest winner at 57%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Monarcas Morelia and 1.33 for Correcaminos UAT.

What was the final score of Monarcas Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT?

Monarcas Morelia 3-2 Correcaminos UAT in the Mexico - Primera A on 30/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Monarcas Morelia vs Correcaminos UAT?

Before kick-off our model rated a Monarcas Morelia win the most likely single outcome at about 57%, with the full match-result split Monarcas Morelia 57%, draw 24%, Correcaminos UAT 19%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Monarcas Morelia) ✗ BTTS No
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