Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Arda Kardzhali — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Bulgaria - Cup, 30 Apr 2026

📅30/04/2026 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
30%
2.83
Away
35%
2.72
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.51
Over 2.5
47%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.09
No
54%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
31%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
20%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
17%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
14%
X/2
8%
X/X
24%
2/1
4%
2/2
23%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.8pp
30%
Draw
32%
-1.2pp
35%
Away Win
33%
+1.9pp
53%
Under 2.5
62%
-9.9pp
47%
Over 2.5
38%
+9.8pp
46%
BTTS Yes
44%
+2.1pp
54%
BTTS No
56%
-2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Arda Kardzhali EU Bookmakers 37%
+52% / +52% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +40% / +40%
1.00/0.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 3.00/2.00
+108% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -66%
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 4
277 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 313 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
1.50 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
48% Ball Possession 52%
8 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 2
22.04.2026 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-4 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BULK
06.12.2025 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0-2 HT 0-2 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
11.08.2025 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 0-0 HT 0-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
23.11.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 4-2 HT 3-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
20.07.2024 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 HT 1-0 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali BUL1
18.02.2024 Arda Kardzhali Arda Kardzhali 1-2 HT 1-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv Lokomotiv Plovdiv BUL1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1-1
AWAY Arda Kardzhali
26% Ball Possession 74%
4 Total Shots 22
2 Shots on Target 7
1 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lokomotiv Plovdiv and Arda Kardzhali couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (35% / 30% / 35%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had 26% of the ball to Arda Kardzhali's 74%, shots finished 4-22.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lokomotiv Plovdiv had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.50 goals for Lokomotiv Plovdiv and 1.17 for Arda Kardzhali.

What was the final score of Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 Arda Kardzhali in the Bulgaria - Cup on 30/04/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Arda Kardzhali?

Before kick-off our model rated a Lokomotiv Plovdiv win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split Lokomotiv Plovdiv 35%, draw 30%, Arda Kardzhali 35%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

◐ Match Result — model had it level (35/30/35) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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