Fluminense 3-2 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Libertadores, 30 May 2024

📅30/05/2024 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 3-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.53
Draw
22%
3.94
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.03
Over 2.5
53%
1.71
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.81
2-3 Goals
39%
1.83
4-5 Goals
26%
3.22
6+ Goals
8%
11.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1.93
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
7%
16.1
X/1
15%
3.76
X/2
7%
11.5
X/X
7%
5.7
2/1 EV+ ✓
10%
22.3
2/2
11%
8.96
2/X
8%
16.9
Value flag · 2/1 at 22.3 — our 10% vs market 2.1%. Landed.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
61%
-6.0pp
22%
Draw
22%
-0.4pp
23%
Away Win
17%
+6.4pp
47%
Under 2.5
45%
+1.9pp
53%
Over 2.5
55%
-1.9pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-1.0pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fluminense EU Bookmakers 65%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 20%
+16% / +17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -8% / -8%
1.25/0.70 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.44/0.87
+15% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -97% / +60%
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
412 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 256 · 73%
20.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 9.9
19.8 Crosses 9.6
2.4 Yellow Cards 3.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fluminense
0W-1D-0L
AWAY Alianza Lima
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.45 xG 1.08
79% Ball Possession 21%
11 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 1
710 Passes 134
92% Pass Accuracy 66%
12 Box Touches 19
18 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 2
04.04.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-1 HT 1-0 Fluminense Fluminense LKU
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fluminense
3-2
AWAY Alianza Lima
1.70 xG 1.33
70% Ball Possession 30%
13 Total Shots 19
7 Shots on Target 9
4 Corners 9
494 Passes 163
88% Pass Accuracy 73%
21 Box Touches 25
17 Crosses 23
6 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Fluminense vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fluminense nicked a narrow win over Alianza Lima 3-2. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Fluminense as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Fluminense had 70% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 30%, shots finished 13-19, expected goals 1.70 to 1.33.

What was the final score of Fluminense vs Alianza Lima?

Fluminense 3-2 Alianza Lima in the Copa Libertadores on 30/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fluminense vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fluminense win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Fluminense 55%, draw 22%, Alianza Lima 23%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fluminense), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fluminense) ✓ Over 2.5
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