Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 Nomme JK Kalju — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Estonia - Premium League, 30 May 2026

📅30/05/2026 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.34
Draw
21%
4.34
Away
60%
1.46
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.23
Over 2.5
52%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.73
No
52%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
5%
X/2
21%
X/X
10%
2/1
4%
2/2
30%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
16%
+3.3pp
21%
Draw
20%
+0.6pp
60%
Away Win
64%
-3.9pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.7pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.7pp
48%
BTTS Yes
54%
-5.6pp
52%
BTTS No
46%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju EU Bookmakers 69%
+8% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +15%
1.26/1.96 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/0.73
+19% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +6% / +32%
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
269 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 457 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
37% Ball Possession 63%
9 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 7
2 Corners 8
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.04.2026 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-2 HT 0-2 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
05.10.2025 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-0 HT 0-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
10.08.2025 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 1-2 HT 0-1 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
27.06.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 2-2 HT 1-2 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
01.03.2025 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus 0-3 HT 0-1 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju EST1
09.11.2024 Nomme JK Kalju Nomme JK Kalju 2-1 HT 2-0 Parnu JK Vaprus Parnu JK Vaprus EST1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Parnu JK Vaprus
3-1
AWAY Nomme JK Kalju
38% Ball Possession 62%
9 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Parnu JK Vaprus saw off Nomme JK Kalju 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

By our pre-match numbers this was an upset: we had Nomme JK Kalju at 60% and the game still went the other way. Single results are noisy — probabilities earn their keep across thousands of matches, not one.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Parnu JK Vaprus had 38% of the ball to Nomme JK Kalju's 62%, shots finished 9-16.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nomme JK Kalju led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Parnu JK Vaprus and 1.67 for Nomme JK Kalju.

What was the final score of Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju?

Parnu JK Vaprus 3-1 Nomme JK Kalju in the Estonia - Premium League on 30/05/2026. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme JK Kalju?

Before kick-off our model rated an Nomme JK Kalju win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Parnu JK Vaprus 19%, draw 21%, Nomme JK Kalju 60%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Over 2.5 — while Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Nomme JK Kalju) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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