Bristol Rovers 2-1 Plymouth Argyle — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Friendlies, 30 Jul 2024

📅30/07/2024 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
2.94
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
47%
2.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.1
Over 2.5
47%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.6
No
53%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.04
2-3 Goals
38%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.1
6+ Goals
11%
9.99
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.04 — our 28% vs market 19.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
1/2
10%
1/X
7%
X/1
11%
X/2
9%
X/X
11%
2/1
5%
2/2
28%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
31%
-3.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.1pp
47%
Away Win
44%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
44%
+9.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
56%
-9.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
58%
-11.6pp
53%
BTTS No
42%
+11.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bristol Rovers EU Bookmakers 34%
Head to Head
AWAY Plymouth Argyle EU Bookmakers 48%
-41% / -41% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +5% / +5%
0.42/2.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 4.35/1.36
-70% / -29% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +150% / -3%
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
309 · 75% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bristol Rovers
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.24 xG 1.66
45% Ball Possession 55%
13 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 8
240 Passes 329
68% Pass Accuracy 74%
22 Box Touches 32
16 Crosses 24
1 Yellow Cards 2
25.04.2023 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-0 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
10.01.2023 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 0-2 HT 0-2 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İNTK
22.10.2022 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 2-2 HT 0-2 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
30.08.2022 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 1-1 HT 0-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İNTK
20.03.2021 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle 2-0 HT 2-0 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers İN1
12.12.2020 Bristol Rovers Bristol Rovers 3-0 HT 2-0 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth Argyle İN1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bristol Rovers
2-1
AWAY Plymouth Argyle
35% Ball Possession 65%
9 Total Shots 20
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Bristol Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bristol Rovers squeezed past Plymouth Argyle 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

Our pre-match lean was Plymouth Argyle at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Bristol Rovers had 35% of the ball to Plymouth Argyle's 65%, shots finished 9-20.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Plymouth Argyle led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Bristol Rovers and 1.50 for Plymouth Argyle.

What was the final score of Bristol Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle?

Bristol Rovers 2-1 Plymouth Argyle in the Friendlies on 30/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bristol Rovers vs Plymouth Argyle?

Before kick-off our model rated an Plymouth Argyle win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Bristol Rovers 27%, draw 26%, Plymouth Argyle 47%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Plymouth Argyle) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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