Paraguay U23 1-0 Mali U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Olympics, 30 Jul 2024

📅30/07/2024 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
1.96
Draw
23%
3.54
Away
36%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
49%
1.6
No
51%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
33%
4.13
2-3 Goals
33%
1.85
4-5 Goals
22%
3.05
6+ Goals
12%
9.65
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.13 — our 33% vs market 19.2%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
2.68
1/2
4%
32.5
1/X
3%
13.25
X/1
10%
4.66
X/2
7%
7.19
X/X
13%
5.33
2/1
7%
22.7
2/2 EV+ ✗
25%
4.9
2/X
7%
13.55
Value flag · 2/2 at 4.9 — our 25% vs market 15.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
47%
-5.8pp
23%
Draw
25%
-1.7pp
36%
Away Win
28%
+7.6pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.2pp
48%
BTTS Yes
58%
-9.9pp
52%
BTTS No
42%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Paraguay U23 EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Mali U23 EU Bookmakers 32%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
370 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 391 · 83%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Paraguay U23
1-0
AWAY Mali U23
0.48 xG 0.87
35% Ball Possession 65%
13 Total Shots 11
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 2
198 Passes 412
70% Pass Accuracy 82%
17 Box Touches 27
5 Crosses 16
6 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Paraguay U23 vs Mali U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Paraguay U23 nicked a narrow win over Mali U23 1-0.

Our pre-match split (41% / 23% / 36%) promised a tight game; Paraguay U23 found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Paraguay U23 had 35% of the ball to Mali U23's 65%, shots finished 13-11, expected goals 0.48 to 0.87.

What was the final score of Paraguay U23 vs Mali U23?

Paraguay U23 1-0 Mali U23 in the Olympics on 30/07/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Paraguay U23 vs Mali U23?

Before kick-off our model rated a Paraguay U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Paraguay U23 41%, draw 23%, Mali U23 36%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Paraguay U23), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Paraguay U23) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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