Motherwell 2-2 Kilmarnock — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Scotland - Premiership, 30 Aug 2025

📅30/08/2025 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.9
Draw
21%
3.35
Away
27%
3.48
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.78
Over 2.5
49%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.82
No
50%
1.88
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
31%
3.04
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
23%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.04 — our 31% vs market 27.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
2.61
1/2
7%
34.5
1/X
9%
13.35
X/1 EV+ ✗
25%
4.45
X/2
8%
7.63
X/X
6%
4.49
2/1
7%
24.95
2/2
12%
5.99
2/X
6%
14.4
Value flag · X/1 at 4.45 — our 25% vs market 17.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
48%
+3.6pp
21%
Draw
26%
-5.2pp
27%
Away Win
25%
+1.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-1.1pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+1.1pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.5pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Motherwell EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Kilmarnock EU Bookmakers 29%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +4%
1.52/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.10/1.39
+9% / -27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -15% / -1%
54% Ball Possession 46%
14 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
306 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 241 · 68%
22.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.0
20.4 Crosses 22.9
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Motherwell
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.99 xG 0.95
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 8
244 Passes 281
68% Pass Accuracy 74%
21 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 27
2 Yellow Cards 3
14.05.2025 Motherwell Motherwell 3-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
05.04.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 2-0 HT 1-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
08.01.2025 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 0-0 HT 0-0 Motherwell Motherwell İKP
20.12.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 1-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
18.08.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-0 HT 0-0 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKLK
03.02.2024 Motherwell Motherwell 1-1 HT 1-1 Kilmarnock Kilmarnock İKP
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Motherwell
2-2
AWAY Kilmarnock
1.68 xG 1.20
74% Ball Possession 26%
15 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 0
594 Passes 164
88% Pass Accuracy 69%
35 Box Touches 13
22 Crosses 12
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Motherwell vs Kilmarnock
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Motherwell and Kilmarnock couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2. Half-time: 1-1.

Our pre-match lean was Motherwell at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Motherwell had 74% of the ball to Kilmarnock's 26%, shots finished 15-7, expected goals 1.68 to 1.20.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Motherwell had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Motherwell and 0.67 for Kilmarnock.

What was the final score of Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Motherwell 2-2 Kilmarnock in the Scotland - Premiership on 30/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Motherwell vs Kilmarnock?

Before kick-off our model rated a Motherwell win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Motherwell 52%, draw 21%, Kilmarnock 27%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Motherwell) ✗ Under 2.5
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
İKP More Scotland - Premiership
30 Aug 2025
17:00 Livingston vs Hearts Analysis →