Middlesbrough 0-0 Stoke City — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Championship, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒21:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
1.86
Draw
25%
3.35
Away
26%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.78
Over 2.5
44%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.85
No
50%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
2.91
2-3 Goals
45%
1.74
4-5 Goals
19%
3.76
6+ Goals
8%
16.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.91 — our 28% vs market 27.7%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
2.5
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.75
X/1
17%
4.35
X/2
8%
8.17
X/X
11%
4.55
2/1
7%
25.0
2/2
12%
6.59
2/X
7%
15.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our call
Under 2.5 — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our call is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH Home Win — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
49%
Home Win
50%
-0.3pp
25%
Draw
26%
-1.8pp
26%
Away Win
24%
+2.1pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+3.4pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS Yes
50%
-0.2pp
50%
BTTS No
50%
+0.2pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Middlesbrough EU Bookmakers 54%
Head to Head
AWAY Stoke City EU Bookmakers 27%
-2% / +22% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +10%
1.44/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.17/1.44
-13% / +5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -1% / +17%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
350 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 263 · 73%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.8
18.4 Crosses 17.4
1.5 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Middlesbrough
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Stoke City
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.62 xG 1.22
57% Ball Possession 44%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
446 Passes 308
83% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 19
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
25.02.2025 Stoke City Stoke City 1-3 HT 1-1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
28.09.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 2-0 HT 1-0 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
27.08.2024 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-5 HT 0-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNLK
02.03.2024 Stoke City Stoke City 2-0 HT 1-0 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough İNCL
28.10.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 0-2 HT 0-2 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
14.03.2023 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 1-1 HT 1-1 Stoke City Stoke City İNCL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Middlesbrough
0-0
AWAY Stoke City
0.64 xG 1.61
55% Ball Possession 45%
12 Total Shots 18
4 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 8
422 Passes 287
87% Pass Accuracy 83%
18 Box Touches 19
19 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Middlesbrough vs Stoke City
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Middlesbrough and Stoke City fought out a 0-0 stalemate. Neither side could find a way through.

Our pre-match lean was Middlesbrough at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Middlesbrough had 55% of the ball to Stoke City's 45%, shots finished 12-18, expected goals 0.64 to 1.61.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Stoke City led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Middlesbrough and 1.83 for Stoke City.

What was the final score of Middlesbrough vs Stoke City?

Middlesbrough 0-0 Stoke City in the England - Championship on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Middlesbrough vs Stoke City?

Before kick-off our model rated a Middlesbrough win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Middlesbrough 49%, draw 25%, Stoke City 26%. The final score 0-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Middlesbrough) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Middlesbrough) ✓ Under 2.5
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