Padova Calcio 2-2 Avellino — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie B, 30 Sep 2025

📅30/09/2025 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
39%
2.18
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
33%
3.25
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
58%
1.54
Over 2.5
42%
2.33
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
2.03
No
54%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2.3
2-3 Goals
36%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
4.91
6+ Goals
9%
29.5
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
3.25
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.6
X/1
14%
4.79
X/2
13%
6.61
X/X
14%
3.68
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
14%
5.34
2/X
6%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
39%
Home Win
42%
-2.8pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.5pp
33%
Away Win
27%
+5.2pp
58%
Under 2.5
61%
-3.4pp
42%
Over 2.5
39%
+3.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
45%
+0.7pp
54%
BTTS No
55%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Padova Calcio EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Avellino EU Bookmakers 31%
-4% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +8%
1.08/1.27 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.75/1.36
-32% / +17% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +22% / -20%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
323 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 79%
15.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 7.3
19.4 Crosses 13.3
1.1 Yellow Cards 3.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Padova Calcio
3W-1D-1L
AWAY Avellino
1.20 Avg Goals (FT) 0.80
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 7
2 Yellow Cards 4
03.05.2025 Avellino Avellino 0-1 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
09.06.2021 Avellino Avellino 0-1 HT 0-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio İTC
06.06.2021 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 1-1 HT 1-0 Avellino Avellino İTC
30.05.2014 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio 2-1 HT 2-1 Avellino Avellino nan
29.12.2013 Avellino Avellino 2-1 HT 1-1 Padova Calcio Padova Calcio nan
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Padova Calcio
2-2
AWAY Avellino
0.80 xG 1.03
45% Ball Possession 55%
11 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 1
409 Passes 510
86% Pass Accuracy 86%
22 Box Touches 11
22 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Padova Calcio vs Avellino
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Padova Calcio and Avellino couldn't be separated, finishing 2-2.

We called this one close before kick-off — 39% / 28% / 33% — and a draw is about as on-script as that read gets. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Padova Calcio had 45% of the ball to Avellino's 55%, shots finished 11-12, expected goals 0.80 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, Padova Calcio had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.20 goals for Padova Calcio and 0.80 for Avellino.

What was the final score of Padova Calcio vs Avellino?

Padova Calcio 2-2 Avellino in the Italy - Serie B on 30/09/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Padova Calcio vs Avellino?

Before kick-off our model rated a Padova Calcio win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Padova Calcio 39%, draw 28%, Avellino 33%. The final score 2-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Padova Calcio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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